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MU

Micron

$39.81

-0.57 (-1.41%)

, SSNLF

Samsung

$0.00

(0.00%)

12:37
03/20/19
03/20
12:37
03/20/19
12:37

Fly Intel: What to watch in Micron's earnings report

Micron (MU) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal second quarter after the market close on March 20, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET. What to watch for: 1. Q2 EPS CONSENSUS LOWER: Along with its last report, Micron guided for Q2 earnings per share of $1.75, plus or minus 10c, on revenue of $5.7B-$6.3B. At the time, analysts were expecting the company to report Q2 EPS of $2.44 on revenue of $7.34B, but those figures have dropped drastically to $1.67 and $5.82B, respectively. Meanwhile, the company also said in its last report that it was taking "decisive action" to lower its DRAM bit production growth to 16% from 20% for fiscal 2019. 2. DRAMEXCHANGE: Earlier this month, a PC DRAM market analysis from DRAMeXchange found that most contracts are now monthly deals rather than quarterly deals, with February even seeing a most unusual, large down-correction in prices, the market researcher stated in a report published earlier. According to the analysis, the current quarterly decline dropped from the originally projected 25% to almost 30%, leading to the sharpest decline in a single season since 2011. "The overall market has thus entered freefall, meaning that large reductions in prices aren't going to be effective in driving sales," the report said at the time. "The excessively high inventory will continue to cause down-corrections in prices this year if demand doesn't make a strong comeback." 3. BOFA SEES Q2 EARNINGS MISS: In a research note to investors last Friday, BofA/Merrill analyst Simon Woo warned that Micron may be headed for an earnings miss in Q2 as it suffers from a comparable price decline and margin squeeze that befell Samsung (SSNLF) and Hynix. Woo modeled Q2 sequential average selling price declines of 22%-23% vs. 13%-15% prior based on what was learned from Samsung and also believes that Q2 bit growth should also be negative. The analyst maintained his Buy rating and $50 price target on the stock longer term, anticipating a "meaningful turnaround" to materialize in the upcoming fourth quarter with a "double-digit bit growth Q/Q." 4. CITI SEES DRAM 'CRASH': Tuesday, Citi analyst Christopher Danely said that he disagrees with the bullish thesis that we are at or approaching the bottom for Micron and that a recovery will happen in the second half of 2019. The analyst said he believes selling prices could bottom in the second half of 2019, not the first half, and that all three DRAM producers are stockpiling inventory in order to prevent flooding the market with excess of supply. Danely reiterated a Neutral rating on Micron with a $35 price target, adding that he believes current production rates remain well ahead of demand and that the excess inventory on the balance sheets of the memory companies will need to be written down or written off.

MU

Micron

$39.81

-0.57 (-1.41%)

SSNLF

Samsung

$0.00

(0.00%)

  • 20

    Mar

  • 20

    Mar

MU Micron
$39.81

-0.57 (-1.41%)

03/19/19
SBSH
03/19/19
NO CHANGE
Target $35
SBSH
Neutral
Citi predicts 'DRAM crash,' sees no second half recovery for Micron
The Micron Technology bulls think we are at or approaching the bottom and that a recovery will happen in the second half of 2019, Citi analyst Christopher Danely tells investors in a pre-earnings research note, citing his talks with investors. The analyst, however, disagrees with this thesis based on his channel checks and supply/demand model. He believes memory selling prices could bottom in the second half of 2019, not the first half. All three DRAM producers are stockpiling inventory in order to prevent flooding the market with excess of supply, Danely tells investors in a research note. He believes current production rates remain well ahead of demand and that the excess inventory on the balance sheets of the memory companies will need to be written down or written off. The analyst estimates that normal DRAM channel inventory is one month and it's at three months now "only due to producers holding inventory." In a research note titled "Earnings Preview: Don't Go Away Mad...Just Go Away. It's Only Getting Worse, No 2H recovery for Micron Due to DRAM Crash," Danely reiterates a Neutral rating on Micron Technology with a $35 price target. The chipmaker closed yesterday up 7c to $39.61. He expects in-line fiscal Q2 results on when the company reports on March 20 but sees downside to 2019 and 2020 estimates "due to the DRAM Crash."
03/18/19
STPT
03/18/19
UPGRADE
STPT
Buy
Micron upgraded to Buy from Hold at Standpoint Research
03/18/19
MKMP
03/18/19
NO CHANGE
Target $44
MKMP
Buy
Micron earnings estimates reduced at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Ruben Roy kept his Buy rating and $44 price target on Micron but lowered his FY19 EPS view to $7.01 from $8.14 and his FY20 outlook to $6.05 from $7.91 ahead of its next earnings report next week. The analyst cites demand trends in the server and handset markets remaining "challenged", along with the continued pricing deterioration over the past several months. In spite of his lower average-selling-price assumptions however, Roy recommends that investors with longer term horizon continue to hold Micron, anticipating "solid operating margins and profitability" for the company this year.
03/18/19
MSCO
03/18/19
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Equal Weight
Morgan Stanley surprised Micron didn't preannounce
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said he is "frankly surprised" that Micron did not preannounce its Q2 results given the weakness seen in its markets since the company gave guidance in mid-December and he expects a "tough quarter" when the company reports on Wednesday after the close. The market expectation when the company gave guidance was calendar first quarter server DRAM pricing would be $230, but pricing started the quarter at $200 and has since moved down to currently about $150, Moore noted. The analyst, who thinks the biggest question is how long conditions will continue to deteriorate, doesn't expect to get definitive answers on that this quarter but said that he continues to see "discouraging lead indicators." Moore keeps an Equal Weight rating on Micron shares.
SSNLF Samsung
$0.00

(0.00%)

03/15/19
BOFA
03/15/19
NO CHANGE
Target $50
BOFA
Buy
Micron heading for Q2 earnings miss, says BofA/MerrillS
BofA/Merrill analyst Simon Woo warns that Micron (MU) may be heading for an earnings miss in Q2 as it suffers from a comparable price decline and margin squeeze that befell Samsung (SSNLF) and Hynix. The analyst models Q2 sequential average selling price declines of 22%-23% vs. 13%-15% prior based on what was learned from Samsung and also believes that Q2 bit growth should also be negative. Woo is keeping his Buy rating and $50 price target on Micron longer term, expecting a "meaningful turnaround" to materialize in the upcoming Q4 with a "double-digit bit growth Q/Q".
03/15/19
MZHO
03/15/19
NO CHANGE
Target $44
MZHO
Buy
Mizuho lowers estimates for Micron on further DRAM price declines
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh, after traveling to Asia, believes DRAM and NAND pricing trends for the March quarter are down 20% quarter-over-quarter and down 10% for the June quarter. Samsung (SSNLF) is seeing better NAND trends with Q2 inventories coming down to five weeks, but DRAM is still weak as inventories remain high, Rakesh tells investors in a research note. The analyst estimates Samsung fiscal 2019 memory spending could be down 25%-30% year-over-year. To reflect higher inventory and DRAM price declines, the analyst lowered his May and August quarter estimates for Micron Technology (MU). Rakesh also trimmed his price target for Micron shares to $44 from $45 but keeps a Buy rating on the name.
03/06/19
CLVD
03/06/19
NO CHANGE
CLVD
Neutral
Micron estimates cut at Cleveland Research on pricing headwinds, soft demand
Cleveland Research analyst Chandler Converse reiterated a Neutral rating in Micron (MU) and told investors in a research note that weaker than expected pricing feedback for Q1 and Q2 has caused him to lower his EPS and revenue assumptions for FY19. He lowered his FY19 revenue view to $24B from $25.5B and is modeling FY19 EPS at $6.48, citing growing pricing headwinds, inventory risks and soft demand, which create challenges to a recovery in 2H. Increased competitiveness from Samsung (SSNLF) combined with customer inventory consumption and weak end-demand across most end-markets looks to have caused growing pressure over the past month in DRAM and NAND, he said, adding that he views FY19 as likely to be challenged by weak demand and ongoing inventory digestion. He expects DRAM/NAND markets to be better positioned in 2020 with more rational supply and normalized inventory and sees signs that NAND could become balanced earlier if suppliers reduce output further.
03/04/19
SUSQ
03/04/19
NO CHANGE
SUSQ
Positive
Cirrus Logic, Qualcomm winners in S10 teardown, Knowles loser, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland disassembled the Korean version of Samsung's (SSNLF) Galaxy S10 and he found Cirrus Logic (CRUS) won the new amplifier sockets as well as maintaining their codec in the Exynos version. The analyst found Qualcomm (QCOM) has won the under-glass fingerprint sensor, apparently for all designs, not just those using a Qualcomm AP. He said this is a new source of revenue for Qualcomm. He noted the big loser was Knowles (KN) because traditionally Samsung used microphone MEMS from Knowles but in the GS10 not one but two microphones are supplied by GoerTek.

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