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TSLA

Tesla

$292.16

4.46 (1.55%)

07:01
04/04/19
04/04
07:01
04/04/19
07:01

JPMorgan cuts Tesla target to $200 after 'so negative' Q1 delivery report

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered his price target for Tesla to $200 from $215 saying last night's Q1 vehicle production and deliveries report is "substantially worse than expected." The analyst keeps an Underweight rating on the name. Tesla in premarket trading is down 8%, or $23.91, to $267.90. Deliveries tracked just 63,000 units versus JPMorgan's estimate of 70,500 and consensus as recently as March 27 of 74,930, suggesting "materially less" Q1 revenue, margin, and free cash flow, Brinkman tells investors in a research note titled "5 Reasons Why Tesla's 1Q Deliveries Report Is So Negative (Including Potential SEC Implications) - Reiterate Underweight." The market assumed that if Tesla were to miss, it would be due solely to a materially greater than expected number of vehicles in transit, but this appears to be only partly the case, with vehicles in transit at quarter-end totaling 10,600 versus JPMorgan's estimate of 10,000, adds the analyst. Further, Brinkman says that while investor focus has been on the Model 3 ramp, deliveries of the higher price Model S and X "declined substantially" in Q1. The analyst also believes the reaffirmation of the 360,000-400,000 full year deliveries guidance last night "appears to clarify official guidance has in fact all along remained at 360-400K." The "now clear incongruence of CEO outlook statements with official company guidance may hurt the perception of management commentary, eroding investor confidence and potentially placing additional pressure on the shares," says Brinkman.

  • 22

    Apr

TSLA Tesla
$292.16

4.46 (1.55%)

03/27/19
JEFF
03/27/19
NO CHANGE
Target $450
JEFF
Buy
Negative sentiment on Tesla into Q1 'looks excessive,' says Jefferies
"We can't deny some nervousness about Q1 results," Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois tells investors in a research note on Tesla titled "Testing demand elasticity in Q1." The analyst has a Buy rating on the shares with a $450 price target. Tesla closed yesterday at $267.77. With the stock back to pre-second half of 2018 profit levels and near the $250 support level, negativity on the name into Q1 "looks excessive," contends Houchois. For Q1, he expects an EBIT loss of $50M, negative free cash flow of $350M-$400M due to inventory and transit outflow, and $3B in gross cash. He also expects 52,000 Model 3 deliveries in the quarter. The analyst keeps his estimates for the year unchanged. Tesla continues to lead towards increasingly affordable battery electric vehicles, but it is too early to gauge demand elasticity as pay-back from the end of federal credits is still being digested, says the analyst.
03/28/19
BARD
03/28/19
NO CHANGE
Target $465
BARD
Outperform
Tesla setup 'favorable' into delivery release, says Baird
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and $465 price target on Tesla, telling investors in a research note that he is a buyer into the release, as he feels weak deliveries are priced into the stock and views the report as a potentially de-risking event. Kallo says he estimates Tesla delivered 50,000 Model 3s, roughly in line with market expectations, and he thinks the stock could be positively impacted by an update on demand and backlog. Additionally, Kallo says he thinks investors will continue to monitor Model 3 production rates, though deliveries are likely to be a central focus.
03/29/19
JPMS
03/29/19
NO CHANGE
Target $215
JPMS
Underweight
Tesla price target lowered to $215 from $230 at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered his price target for Tesla to $215 from $230 and keeps an Underweight rating on the name after meeting with management. The stock closed yesterday up $3.79 to $278.62. The addressable market for the Model 3 in Europe may be higher than the U.S., "although brand perception still lags in some countries," Brinkman tells investors in a research note. Further, the analyst believes Tesla's working capital headwinds are expected to weigh on free cash flow in Q1. The results this quarter are also "particularly susceptible" to potential delays in delivering Model 3s to customers in Europe and China, says Brinkman. In addition, he thinks Model 3 average selling prices likely peaked in Q4 of 2018. The analyst reduced his estimate of Q1 deliveries following reports of delays in shipping Model 3s to customers in Europe and China. Brinkman's estimate of Q1 Model 3 deliveries declines to 50,000 from 55,000, total deliveries go to 70,500 from 75,500, and adjusted earnings per share drops to 38c from 94c. His full-year 2019 earnings per share estimate goes to $4.25 from $4.50 and 2020 estimate to $6.75 from $7.00.
04/01/19
ADAM
04/01/19
NO CHANGE
Target $450
ADAM
Buy
Tesla's Model 3 performs like a 911, priced like a 3 series, says Canaccord
After hosting a factory tour and test drive for clients at Tesla's (TSLA) Fremont facility, Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer maintains a Buy rating on Tesla shares with a $450 price target. The stock in morning trading is up 1%, or $2.56, to $282.42. The analyst came away with renewed confidence in his thesis that the company maintains an advantage in the race to disrupt the internal combustion engine auto. The new $39,000 Model 3 is a "quantum leap forward in performance" and will capture the "lion-share" of current electric vehicle offerings, Dorsheimer tells investors in a research note. With the performance of a Porsche (POAHY) 911 and the price of an Audi A4 or BMW (BMWYY) 3 series, the Model 3 is the "best value proposition currently on the market today," contends Dorsheimer. And it is clear to the analyst that Tesla has built the facility for scale well beyond current volumes. Further, he was pleased to confirm that the most critical component in the electric vehicle remains the inverter, which he noes has transitioned to silicon carbide and is required with each motor. He sees this as a positive for Buy-thesis on Cree (CREE).

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TSLA

Tesla

$258.70

-5.15 (-1.95%)

, MXWL

Maxwell

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MXWL

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OMAB

OMA Airports

$48.34

-0.25 (-0.51%)

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HMC

Honda

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NTDOY

Nintendo

$0.00

(0.00%)

18:05
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ARGO

Argo Group

$74.46

0.515 (0.70%)

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SJW

SJW Corp.

$61.56

0.3 (0.49%)

18:03
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Earnings
SJW Corp. reports Q1 EPS 21c with items, consensus 14c »

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CE

Celanese

$110.96

-1.19 (-1.06%)

18:02
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ISTR

Investar Holding

$22.45

-0.09 (-0.40%)

18:02
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MSFT

Microsoft

$125.00

-0.5 (-0.40%)

18:00
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Microsoft sees total Q4 revenue at implied $32.2B-$32.9B, consensus $32.63B »

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ISBC

Investors Bancorp

$12.27

0.07 (0.57%)

17:52
04/24/19
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Earnings
Investors Bancorp reports Q1 EPS 18c, consensus 20c »

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FB

Facebook

$182.64

-1.13 (-0.61%)

17:51
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Facebook CEO says 'quite focused on' commerce and payments »

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FB

Facebook

$182.64

-1.13 (-0.61%)

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CLB

Core Laboratories

$72.91

-1.605 (-2.15%)

17:42
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Earnings
Core Laboratories sees Q2 EPS 47c-50c, consensus 49c »

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CLB

Core Laboratories

$72.91

-1.605 (-2.15%)

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Earnings
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MSFT

Microsoft

$125.00

-0.5 (-0.40%)

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TSLA

Tesla

$258.70

-5.15 (-1.95%)

17:40
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Tesla CEO Musk says large number of vehicle deliveries shifted into Q2 »

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  • 24

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FB

Facebook

$182.64

-1.13 (-0.61%)

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PKG

Packaging Corp.

$98.86

0.33 (0.33%)

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PKG

Packaging Corp.

$98.86

0.33 (0.33%)

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TSLA

Tesla

$258.70

-5.15 (-1.95%)

17:30
04/24/19
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Earnings
Tesla expects to significantly reduce loss in Q2, return to profitability in Q3 »

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FOLD

Amicus

$13.15

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FB

Facebook

$182.64

-1.13 (-0.61%)

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