JPMorgan cuts Tesla target to $200 after 'so negative' Q1 delivery report
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered his price target for Tesla to $200 from $215 saying last night's Q1 vehicle production and deliveries report is "substantially worse than expected." The analyst keeps an Underweight rating on the name. Tesla in premarket trading is down 8%, or $23.91, to $267.90. Deliveries tracked just 63,000 units versus JPMorgan's estimate of 70,500 and consensus as recently as March 27 of 74,930, suggesting "materially less" Q1 revenue, margin, and free cash flow, Brinkman tells investors in a research note titled "5 Reasons Why Tesla's 1Q Deliveries Report Is So Negative (Including Potential SEC Implications) - Reiterate Underweight." The market assumed that if Tesla were to miss, it would be due solely to a materially greater than expected number of vehicles in transit, but this appears to be only partly the case, with vehicles in transit at quarter-end totaling 10,600 versus JPMorgan's estimate of 10,000, adds the analyst. Further, Brinkman says that while investor focus has been on the Model 3 ramp, deliveries of the higher price Model S and X "declined substantially" in Q1. The analyst also believes the reaffirmation of the 360,000-400,000 full year deliveries guidance last night "appears to clarify official guidance has in fact all along remained at 360-400K." The "now clear incongruence of CEO outlook statements with official company guidance may hurt the perception of management commentary, eroding investor confidence and potentially placing additional pressure on the shares," says Brinkman.