The Philly Fed fell in April
The Philly Fed fell in April to 8.5 from 13.7 in March and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February, versus a 1-year high of 32.3 in May of 2018. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed similarly slipped to 54.5 from a 5-month high of 55.8 in March and a 2-year low of 51.9 in February, versus a 45-year high of 61.9 in May of 2018. Today's drop joins Monday's Empire State April bounce to leave what looks like a still-firm path for these measures despite the winter setback, and solid growth prospects for the Q2 factory sector that bucks the market's growth fears earlier in the year. The ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys should rise to 55 in April from a 2-year low of 54 over the four months through March, following averages of 57 in October and November, and 59 cycle-highs in four of the five months through September. The average is well below the 57-59 range evident since September of 2017. Analysts expect GDP growth of 2.4% in Q1 and 3.0% in Q2, after rates of 2.2% in Q4 and 3.4% in Q3. Analysts expect industrial production growth of 3.0% in Q2, after rates of -0.3% in Q1, 4.0% in Q4 and 5.2% in Q3.