Buckingham analyst Neil Frohnapple says his recently completed quarterly Navistar (NAV) dealer survey came in "noticeably more upbeat" than his recent conversations with Paccar (PCAR) dealers. Expectation for further Class 8 market share gains in 2019 along with bullishness for the new Class 4-5 vehicle are two factors contributing to a relatively more positive outlook on Navistar, Frohnapple tells investors in a research note. The analyst, who does not suggest Navistar will raise guidance when it reports this quarter as it remains early in the fiscal year, thinks there is a "high probability" of upside to the consensus EBITDA estimate of $876M based on stronger than expected market share gains, incremental synergies from the Traton alliance, and potential tailwinds in the second half of 2019 from lower raw material costs. Further, Frohnapple still sees a "high probability" that Navistar will be purchased this year as he thinks the Traton alliance will lead to a complete takeover by Volkswagen (VLKAY). The analyst says Navistar's risk/reward profile is still attractive despite the stock's 41% year-to-date rally. He keeps a Buy rating on the name with a $48 price target. Navistar in early trading is up 74c to $37.28.

According to ACT Research, Class 8 net orders in March were 15,700 units, down 66% year-over-year, JPMorgan analyst Ann Duignan tells investors in a research note. The analyst points out that truck orders have the largest incremental impact on Navistar (NAV), Paccar (PCAR), Cummins (CMI), Eaton (ETN), Wabco (WBC) and Allison Transmission (ALSN).