Tariff studies suggest difficulties in gauging outcomes:
Tariff studies suggest difficulties in gauging outcomes: Atlanta Fed's February 25 Macroblog showed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods would boost consumer prices some 0.4%. It also reported that: "tariff hikes and trade policy tensions have had a rather modest impact on U.S. business investment. Of course, tariffs and other trade barriers affect U.S. and foreign economies through multiple channels. Even if the near-term business investment effects of trade policy developments are modest in magnitude, trade barriers can disrupt supply chains, raise input prices, and lead to higher prices for consumer goods." And a March paper from the NBER reported, that "over the course of 2018, the U.S. experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and complete passthrough of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods...analysts find that the full incidence of the tariff falls on domestic consumers, with a reduction in U.S. real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018."