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FIZZ

National Beverage

$54.48

-1.31 (-2.35%)

08:49
05/14/19
05/14
08:49
05/14/19
08:49

Jefferies starts National Beverage at Underperform on slowing LaCroix sales

Jefferies analyst Kevin Grundy initiated coverage of National Beverage with an Underperform rating and $45 price target. A "significant deceleration" in LaCroix's sales and profitability is not adequately reflected in the current share price, Grundy tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes National Beverage's upcoming earnings report, potentially late June, is likely to drive further downward revisions to Street estimates. His fiscal 2020 and 2021 EBITDA estimates are 11% and 6% below consensus, respectively.

FIZZ National Beverage
$54.48

-1.31 (-2.35%)

05/14/19
JEFF
05/14/19
INITIATION
Target $45
JEFF
Underperform
National Beverage initiated with an Underperform at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Kevin Grundy started National Beverage with an Underperform rating and $45 price target.
04/15/19
UBSW
04/15/19
NO CHANGE
Target $50
UBSW
Sell
National Beverage price target lowered to $50 from $55 at UBS
UBS analyst Sean King lowered his price target on National Beverage to $50 and kept his Sell rating, saying that in spite of the 26% correction in its stock price year-to-date, sentiment does not yet "reflect the rising competitive environment that could lead to a deterioration in LaCroix's long-term growth prospects." While he sees the company's exposure to the sparkling beverage category that is growing by low-double-digits as a positive, King cites LaCroix's "declining points of distribution and slowing shelf velocity", warning that the brand "may never return" to growth rates of recent years.
04/03/19
GUGG
04/03/19
NO CHANGE
GUGG
Monster weakness persists as beverage sales slowed in March, says Guggenheim
Guggenheim analyst Laurent Grandet noted that Nielsen reported North American Beverage category sales increased 4.0% in the 12-wk period ending March 23, which is down slightly from 4.2% growth last month. While Energy drinks increased as a category by 9.5%, Monster Beverage (MNST) was "materially weaker," with sales up 3.3% in the 12-wks and down 2.9% in the 4-wk period, said Grandet, who attributed the weakness to Red Bull launching innovation earlier than it typically does, Monster's fewer weeks of promotion in convenience stores this year-to-date and Bang's significantly accelerated distribution gains. Grandet also pointed out in his category overview note that sales of National Beverage's (FIZZ) LaCroix continue to deteriorate, with sales down 4.2% in the 12-wks and down 5.1% in the 4-wk period, according to Nielsen data. The analyst has a Buy rating on Monster shares and a Sell rating on National Beverage.
03/08/19
03/08/19
DOWNGRADE

Fly Intel: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Netflix (NFLX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Buckingham with analyst Matthew Harrigan citing the stock's sensitivity to any market pullback, "investor angst" regarding what he calls "increasingly credible" competition from the Disney+ (DIS) streaming service and his concerns that his model for Netflix's long-term global membership growth may be optimistic given the rising competition. 2. GameStop (GME) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill with analyst Curtis Nagle citing expectations for a deterioration in fundamentals. 3. Exxon Mobil (XOM) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen with analyst Jason Gabelman saying the company is shifting to a counter-cyclical investment stage, which may pay dividends long-term but he does not believe investors are willing to wait for results. 4. Etsy (ETSY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG with analyst Marvin Fong saying the current stock price embeds a "fair amount of future improvement," which yields a risk/reward that is balanced. 5. National Beverage (FIZZ) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Guggenheim with analyst Laurent Grandet saying he "drastically reduced" his LaCroix sales growth expectations and cut his gross margin and EPS estimates accordingly following the company's quarterly report. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

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