The Michigan sentiment rise in May
The Michigan sentiment rise in May was still solid, despite a big downward revision to an 8-month high of 100.0 that sits well below the previously reported 102.4 -- which was a 15-year high before revision. The cycle-high now toggles back to the 101.4 reading in March of 2018. Michigan sentiment is above the 97.2 April reading, and well above the 2-year low of 91.2 in January. The expectations index is still at a 15-year high, despite a big downward bump to 93.5 from 96.0, versus 87.4 in April and a 91.0 prior cycle-high in January of 2015. Today's -2.4 May headline revision follows prior revisions of 0.3 in April, 0.6 in March and -1.7 in February. Revisions are averaging -0.5 in 2019, versus a zero average in 2018. All the various "soft" data measures have bounced since the December-January pull-back, though analysts face possible headwinds going forward from resumed trade war concerns. Despite this risk, analysts still expect a savings rate drop and faster consumption growth into mid-year, and a housing sector updraft after a dismal winter. For other May surveys, analysts saw a May consumer confidence rise to a 6-month high of 134.1 from 129.2, and an IBD/TIPP surge to a 58.6 cycle-high in May from 54.2 in April. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index is averaging 60.2 thus far in May after a 60.3 April average.