The May U.S. retail sales report beat estimates via revisions
The May U.S. retail sales report beat estimates via revisions, with expected May gains of 0.5% both with and without autos, but after widespread upward revisions for March and April. The 2019 retail sales recovery from the ugly December report has continued, and without the April setback. Analysts saw May sales boosts from a 0.7% rise in auto dealer sales alongside the 5.9% vehicle sales pop, and a 0.1% rise for building material sales after a big upward April revision. Analysts also saw a 0.3% rise for service station sales despite a -0.5% CPI gasoline price decline. Analysts left our Q2 GDP estimate at 1.9%, though with Q2 real consumption growth of 3.2% instead of 3.1%, and analysts no longer expect a Q1 growth trimming from 3.1%. Analysts assume May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) growth figures of 0.3% for the nominal measure and 0.2% for the "real" gain. Analysts expect the savings rate to remain at April's 6.2% in May, though after-tax income will get a boost from a give-back of the tax payment rise through April. The business inventory report later this morning will reveal a -0.2% April sales figure after a revised 1.3% (was 1.6%) March increase. Today's retail sales data are consistent with a 0.2% business sales rise in next month's May report.