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AGN

Allergan

$165.75

36.1 (27.84%)

09:52
06/25/19
06/25
09:52
06/25/19
09:52

Call flow in Allergan last week suggests potential deal leakage

Call flow in Allergan last week suggests potential deal leakage. Shares up $37, or 28%, this morning to $166 on a $184 cash bid from Abbvie, which is working out well for one of the largest trades executed last week. On 6/19 a buyer opened over 5K Aug 135/160 call spreads from 3.45 to 3.80 with shares trading $126.10 to $127.25. Total call volume of 36K on that date was 5x normal, and dwarfed the put volume of 6800 contracts. After today's move, this spread is deep in the money and worth about $22, for a 6day return of nearly 600%, or $9M on the $1.9M outlay.

AGN Allergan
$165.75

36.1 (27.84%)

06/25/19
MZHO
06/25/19
NO CHANGE
Target $171
MZHO
Buy
Allergan price target lowered to $171 from $194 at Mizuho
Mizuho analyst Irina Koffler lowered her Botox Cosmetic and CoolSculpt estimates after conducting a survey of 20 dermatologists and plastic surgeons, who gave the impression that that the Botox franchise will be pressured by Evolus (EOLS) and other new entrants. Koffler cut her price target on Allergan shares to $171 from $194 based on the lowered estimates, but maintains a Buy rating on the stock, stating that it is "widely expected" that the company will make a strategic announcement that begins the preliminary work of separating the company in the next 1-2 months.
06/25/19
PIPR
06/25/19
NO CHANGE
PIPR
Neutral
Piper says 'willing to listen' to AbbVie reasoning for Allergan acquisition
Ahead of the call to discuss AbbVie's (ABBV) planned $63B acquisition of Allergan (AGN), Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond said his first reaction to the deal could be summed up with the phrase "two turkeys don't make an eagle," but he is "willing to listen" despite his skepticism about the transaction. Though he cannot say he is "excited at the prospect of AbbVie entering the field of medical aesthetics," EPS accretion of 10% in year one and over 20% at peak, and the potential for meaningful deleveraging and cost cutting, has his attention, Raymond said. He keeps a Neutral rating on AbbVie based on his initial reaction to the deal announcement.
06/25/19
WELS
06/25/19
NO CHANGE
WELS
Outperform
Deals with premiums like Allergan's 'rarely killed,' says Wells Fargo
After Abbvie (ABBV) announced an agreement to acquire Allergan (AGN) for $120 per share of cash and a remaining $68 in AbbVie shares, Wells Fargo analyst David Maris said he views the deal as a good alternative for Allergan versus the current share price, but he is not convinced its a better long term alternative given the eventual biosimilar threat to Abbvie's blockbuster drug Humira. With that said, Maris tells investors that "deals at such premiums are rarely killed because of a bad strategic fit or longer -term value outlook in the absence of other bidders." Though he would not completely rule out an activist investor disrupting the deal, he thinks it is unlikely given there has been a strategic review of the company for some time. Maris, who said he thinks the deal could go through, keeps an Outperform rating on Allergan shares.
06/25/19
LEER
06/25/19
NO CHANGE
LEER
Outperform
Bid of $188 for Allergan 'too low,' others may pursue as well, says SVB Leerink
SVB Leerink analyst Marc Goodman is not surprise that one of the large pharma companies has made a bid on Allergan (AGN) given the multi-year stock weakness. However, he believes a $188 price is "too low," as he "can't believe that Allergan is not being taken out at least at $200," which "begs the question" whether this was a process or is AbbVie (ABBV) "opportunistically pursuing a wounded stock." If it is the latter, Goodman believes this bid could initiate others to pursue Allergan as well. He has an Outperform rating on Allegan's shares.

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LOGC

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$NSD

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$0.00

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14:17
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NASDAQ market internals summary »

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$NYE

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KKR

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$26.49

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KKR put volume heavy and directionally bearish »

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-0.945 (-0.46%)

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Citi

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AMC Entertainment call volume above normal and directionally bullish »

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MDCO

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