The 10k initial claims rise to 227k
The 10k initial claims rise to 227k in the fourth week of June, following a 5k drop to 217k (was 216k) in the BLS survey week, leaves a lofty start to claims as analysts enter the period of heightened claims volatility attributable to auto retooling. Analysts have a claims up-tilt into June, following oscillations around tight levels since February. Today's reading is near the elevated 230k figures in late-April, and well above the 49-year low of 193k in the April BLS survey week. Claims are averaging 222k in June, versus lower recent averages of 217k in May, 215k in April, and 214k in March. Analysts saw a cycle-low 212k average last September. The 217k BLS Survey week reading exceeds recent survey week readings of 212k in May, 193k in April, and 216k in March. Analysts lowered our June nonfarm payroll estimate to 160k from 170k, with downside risk from a June rise in claims, a down-tilt in producer sentiment, a drop in the consumer confidence despite gains in other confidence measures, and a small 27k May ADP rise. Analysts saw a 6% May vehicle sales bounce that reversed a 6% April drop, alongside a 6% vehicle assembly rate bounce to 11.3 M from April's 11-month low of 10.6 M.