The U.S. Q1 GDP data
The U.S. Q1 GDP data imply a boost in Q1 productivity growth to a 3.5% pace from the previously reported 3.4% rate, after an unrevised 1.3% clip in Q4. Analysts expect an associated hike in growth for the Q1 BLS output index to 4.0% from the 3.9% clip reported earlier, following the 2.6% Q4 rate. The Q1 hours-worked growth clip should remain at 0.5%, versus the much stronger 1.8% pace in the monthly jobs data, following respective Q4 rates of 1.3% and 1.7%. For the income data, analysts expect no revision in the 1.8% Q1 growth pace for hourly compensation, following a 0.9% Q4 rate, leaving unit labor cost growth of -1.7% (was -1.6%) after a -0.4% Q4 clip. Analysts saw Q1 personal income revisions that left slightly slower growth of 3.2% (was 3.3%) for total income and just 2.5% (was 2.6%) for disposable income, after respective unrevised Q4 figures of 4.1% and 4.7%. Analysts peg Q2 growth at 4.1% for income and 3.7% for disposable income with a hit from an April tax receipt bounce. Disposable income was lifted in 2018 by tax cuts, but analysts're seeing some reversal of this impact in 2019 as lean refunds and firm receipts imply slight under-withholding in 2018.