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FX Action: USD-CAD has lifted back above 1.3050

FX Action: USD-CAD has lifted back above 1.3050 after posting a fresh nine-month low at 1.3037 yesterday. A softening in oil prices looks to have helped take some of the wind out of the Canadian dollar's sails. Focus today is no the release of June employment reports out of both the U.S. and Canada, which present downside risks to USD-CAD as downside risk abounds with regard to the U.S. release from initial claims as auto retooling begins, and producer sentiment indicators have shown a June pull-back. The vehicle sector should be a drag as well, as both the assembly rate and vehicle sales take back some of their May gains. WE expect a 160k June nonfarm payroll rise (median 165k) after the disappointing 75k increase in May. Analysts see a steady jobless rate alongside gains of 0.2% for hours-worked and 0.3% for hourly earnings (median same). Our June estimate is just below the 164k year-to-date average, and well under the 223k average in 2018. As of the Canadian jobs report, analysts expect a 20.0k rise (median 10.5k) in June after the 27.7k rise in May, continuing the modest improvements after the stunning record one-month gain of 106.6k in April. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.4% in June from 5.4% in May.


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