For the jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook
For the jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook, the monthly hours-worked figures posted a lean 0.6% clip in Q2, following rates of 1.8% in Q1 and 1.7% in Q4. The hours-worked data suggest modest downside risk for our 1.8% Q2 GDP forecasts, following rates of 3.1% in Q1 and 2.2% in Q4. Analysts expect a 1.4% productivity growth rate in Q2, after an expected Q1 growth boost to 3.5% from 3.4%. Unit labor costs are poised for a 2.4% growth rate in Q2, after a downward bump in the Q1 pace to -1.7% from -1.6%. For Q4/Q4 growth in 2019, analysts expect a 1.8% rise for productivity with a 2.5% pace for GDP and a 1.2% rate for hours-worked in the productivity report, following respective 2018 gains of 1.7%, 3.0%, 1.8%. Analysts now expect a 173k average payroll gain in 2019 that lies below recent averages of 223k in 2018 and 179k in 2017, and the 251k expansion-high in 2014. Analysts saw an average nonfarm payroll gain of 171k in Q2 that nearly matches the 174k average in Q1, versus a 233k average in Q4.