The U.S. producer sentiment reports
The U.S. producer sentiment reports revealed an Empire State headline rise to 4.8 in August from 4.3 in July, leaving the measure further above the 3-year low of -8.6 in June, but below the 6-month high of 17.8 in May. The ISM-adjusted measure rose more sharply, to 52.1 from 49.6 in July and a 3-year low of 48.5 in June, versus a slightly higher 52.7 in May. The July Philly Fed fell to a still-firm 16.8 from a 1-year high of 21.8 in July left the measure still well-above the 0.3 reading in June and near the 16.6 level in May. The ISM-adjusted measure similarly fell to a still-solid 56.8 from a 14-month high of 59.3 in July, versus lower prior readings of 55.4 in June and 55.3 in May. The sentiment surveys have been erratic in recent months due to competing effects from trade war fears, troubles abroad, stock price gyrations, tight labor markets, high consumer confidence levels, and firm GDP and consumption growth. The resumed wave of market pessimism may weigh on the late-August sentiment reports. Analysts expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys in August to remain at the 52 July average, versus prior averages of 53 in June, 54 over the prior six months, 57 in October and November, and 59 cycle-highs in four of the five months through September.