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PHM

PulteGroup

$34.68

0.43 (1.26%)

, NVR

NVR

$3,677.00

10.9 (0.30%)

10:46
09/11/19
09/11
10:46
09/11/19
10:46

JPMorgan sees 'modest' further upside after Homebuilding's 2019 rally

Although the Homebuilding sector is up an "impressive" 44% year-to-date, effectively reversing last year's decline, driven by a rebound in several fundamental metrics and a decline in interest rates, the stocks still contain "some modest remaining upside potential," JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut wrote to investors earlier in a research note. The analyst anticipates further improvement across most industry and company data points. However, volatility in the stocks over the last 18 months requires a disciplined approach to the group, cautions Rehaut. With that in mind, the analyst today upgraded PulteGroup (PHM) to Overweight from Neutral, saying its valuation is attractive relative to his fundamental outlook. Rehaut also downgraded NVR (NVR) to Underweight from Neutral following the stock's outperformance year-to-date. He also upgraded Century Communities (CCS) to Overweight from Neutral and Meritage Homes (MTH) to Neutral from Underweight. In addition, the analyst downgraded LGI Home (LGIH) to Neutral from Overweight and reiterated Overweight ratings on Lennar (LEN), Taylor Morrison (TMHC) and William Lyon Homes (WLH).

PHM

PulteGroup

$34.68

0.43 (1.26%)

NVR

NVR

$3,677.00

10.9 (0.30%)

CCS

Century Communities

$28.56

0.81 (2.92%)

MTH

Meritage Homes

$67.75

2.83 (4.36%)

LGIH

LGI Homes

$79.24

1.93 (2.50%)

LEN

Lennar

$53.99

0.69 (1.29%)

TMHC

Taylor Morrison

$24.09

0.46 (1.95%)

WLH

William Lyon Homes

$19.13

0.53 (2.85%)

  • 11

    Sep

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    Sep

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    Oct

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    Oct

PHM PulteGroup
$34.68

0.43 (1.26%)

08/12/19
RHCO
08/12/19
INITIATION
Target $38
RHCO
Buy
PulteGroup initiated with a Buy at SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Rohit Seth initiated PulteGroup with a Buy rating and a price target of $38. The analyst calls the stock an "attractive free cash flow story" after its $1.4B operating cash result last year and his expected cash flow of about $1B per year under a "modest growth" scenario. Seth also believes that PulteGroup's "efficient" operating model will allow the company to weather the ongoing supply constraints on labor and land.
09/11/19
JPMS
09/11/19
UPGRADE
Target $37.5
JPMS
Overweight
PulteGroup upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut upgraded PulteGroup to Overweight from Neutral and raised his price target for the shares to $37.50 from $30. The analyst views the stock's valuation as attractive relative to his fundamental outlook for the Homebuilding sector.
08/23/19
GHSC
08/23/19
INITIATION
Target $44
GHSC
Buy
PulteGroup initiated with a Buy at Seaport Global
Seaport Global analyst Mark Weintraub initiated PulteGroup with a Buy and $44 price target saying order growth has just started to turn positively and next year's deliveries should get a bump from the American West asset acquisition, helping revenue growth resume. Weintraub believes expectations are "quite low" and valuation attractive.
07/24/19
07/24/19
UPGRADE
Target $33

Sector Perform
PulteGroup upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital
As previously reported, RBC Capital analyst Mike Dahl upgraded PulteGroup to Sector Perform and raised his price target to $33 from $29, saying its Q2 results were "strong" while the pullback in the stock price has made risk-reward "more balanced." The analyst says he was previously concerned by the company's premium relative valuation and its "high bar" for meeting its orders and gross margin targets, but Q2 orders grew 7% against expectations of 1% and the management exceeded his expectations by guiding "stable" gross margins for the second half of FY19. Dahl adds that the weaker guidance for closings may have driven the 8% stock price decline, but he also believes that the macro environment for PulteGroup is improving.
NVR NVR
$3,677.00

10.9 (0.30%)

07/22/19
WELS
07/22/19
NO CHANGE
Target $3725
WELS
Market Perform
NVR price target raised to $3,725 from $3,500 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo raised his price target for NVR to $3,725 from $3,500 ahead of quarterly results. The firm reiterates a Market Perform rating on the shares due to valuation.
06/06/19
EVER
06/06/19
INITIATION
EVER
In Line
NVR initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI
Evercore ISI started NVR with an In Line rating and $3,467 price target.
09/11/19
JPMS
09/11/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $3680
JPMS
Underweight
NVR downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut downgraded NVR to Underweight from Neutral while raising his price target for the shares to $3,680 from $3,300. The analyst cites valuation for the downgrade following the stock's year-to-date rally.
08/09/19
EVER
08/09/19
UPGRADE
EVER
Outperform
NVR upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI
CCS Century Communities
$28.56

0.81 (2.92%)

05/31/19
05/31/19
UPGRADE

Fly Intel: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Canada Goose (GOOS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sach with analyst Alexandra Walvis saying she believes the company's fundamentals are "still strong" and the weakness in Q4 was driven in part by strategic changes. 2. Kraft Heinz (KHC) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray with analyst Michael Lavery saying he believes the risks appear to be reflected in the stock's current valuation. 3. Molina Healthcare (MOH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo with analyst Peter Costa saying management highlighted the long-term sustainability of margins and growth at analyst day, which he thinks should be attainable if Molina can avoid losing ground in upcoming contract rebids. 4. Uber (UBER) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities with analyst James Cordwell saying the ridehailing competitive environment is becoming "increasingly benign" while Uber shares have become more attractively valued. 5. Century Communities (CCS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush with analyst Jay McCanless saying that based on the firm's recent management meetings, he estimates 85% of the company's collective business is targeted to affordable price points suggesting the company should be well positioned to meet that demand. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
05/31/19
WEDB
05/31/19
UPGRADE
Target $33
WEDB
Outperform
Century Communities upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Jay McCanless upgraded Century Communities to Outperform from Neutral and raised his price target to $33 from $39, saying that based on the firm's recent management meetings, he estimates 85% of the company's collective business is targeted to affordable price points, suggesting the company should be well positioned to meet that demand. McCanless sees catalysts as the comapny's focus on the affordable products, increasing first-time buyer demand in national statistics and a "manageable" exposure to markets on the Pacific coast.
05/31/19
WEDB
05/31/19
UPGRADE
WEDB
Outperform
Century Communities upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush
09/11/19
JPMS
09/11/19
UPGRADE
Target $32.5
JPMS
Overweight
Century Communities upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut upgraded Century Communities to Overweight from Neutral and raised his price target for the shares to $32.50 from $30.50. The analyst updated his outlook for the Homebuilding sector and sees a "little more left in the tank" for shares.
MTH Meritage Homes
$67.75

2.83 (4.36%)

07/25/19
SBSH
07/25/19
UPGRADE
SBSH
Buy
Meritage Homes upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi
Citi analyst Scott Schrier upgraded Meritage Homes to Buy from Neutral citing the company's "strong" Q2 results.
07/25/19
SBSH
07/25/19
UPGRADE
Target $63
SBSH
Buy
Citi upgrades Meritage Homes to Buy after 'strong' Q2 results
Citi analyst Scott Schrier upgraded Meritage Homes to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target for the shares to $63 from $55. The company's "strong" Q2 results provide evidence that its pivot towards more affordable products aimed at entry-level and first time move-up buyers "continues to show tangible results," Schrier tells investors in a research note. The analyst points out that he hasn't seen a Q2 absorption pace this high since 2006. Meritage's execution alleviates some of the concerns associated with putting spec inventory on the ground, says Schrier.
08/09/19
EVER
08/09/19
DOWNGRADE
EVER
In Line
Meritage Homes downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI
09/11/19
JPMS
09/11/19
UPGRADE
Target $67.5
JPMS
Neutral
Meritage Homes upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut upgraded Meritage Homes to Neutral from Underweight and raised his price target for the shares to $67.50 from $54.50 after updating his outlook for the Homebuilding sector.
LGIH LGI Homes
$79.24

1.93 (2.50%)

09/06/19
JMPS
09/06/19
NO CHANGE
Target $89
JMPS
Outperform
LGI Homes price target raised to $89 from $83 at JMP Securities
JMP Securities analyst Peter Martin raised his price target on LGI Homes to $89 and kept his Outperform rating after its monthly home closings data, saying the results "track well" relative to his Q3 forecasts. The analyst notes that the company's year-to-date closings were up 8% and its absorption rate of 6.8 monthly homes closed per community was near the midpoint of its target 6.0-8.0 range. Martin is concerned however that LGI Homes may miss consensus for the current quarter because of the adverse impact of Hurricane Dorian in the southeast.
09/11/19
JPMS
09/11/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $84.5
JPMS
Neutral
LGI Homes downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut downgraded LGI Homes to Neutral from Overweight while raising his price target for the shares to $84.50 from $77. The analyst updated his outlook for the Homebuilding sector and cites valuation for the downgrade of LGI.
05/06/19
WELS
05/06/19
NO CHANGE
Target $80
WELS
Outperform
LGI Homes price target raised to $80 from $70 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Stephen East raised his price target for LGI Homes to $80 from $70 as he expects April's Closings result will be a tailwind for the equity heading into the company's Q1 earnings. The analyst believes growth should be boosted by 20%-plus 2019 community growth. He reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares.
08/07/19
BTIG
08/07/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $62
BTIG
Sell
LGI Homes downgraded to Sell from Neutral at BTIG
BTIG analyst Carl Reichardt downgraded LGI Homes (LGIH) to Sell from Neutral with a $62 price target. The analyst cites valuation for the downgrade. LGI shares are trading at 2.4 times tangible book value per share, a 60% premium to the homebuilding group excluding NVR (NVR), Reichardt tells investors in a research note. The stock is up 66% for the year and rose 10% Tuesday after a "good" earnings print, but LGI's fiscal 2019 core metric and earnings guidance was reiterated, not increased, despite the quarter, the analyst points out.
LEN Lennar
$53.99

0.69 (1.29%)

06/26/19
BTIG
06/26/19
NO CHANGE
Target $65
BTIG
Buy
Lennar's Q3 guidance 'lighter than expected,' says BTIG
BTIG analyst Carl Reichardt, Jr. reiterated a Buy rating and $65 price target on Lennar following the company's Q2 results, saying much better-than-expected delivery volume drove the beat in the quarter, but Lennar pulled forward spec deliveries in 2Q19 from 3Q19, and, as a result, the Q3 guidance was lighter than expected. The analyst tells investors in a research note that he continues to strongly favor Lennar's FY19 strategy of pace over price and believe the company's deep local share and entry-level mix will lead to growth outperformance and higher returns relative to most smaller peers.
06/26/19
WEDB
06/26/19
NO CHANGE
Target $62
WEDB
Outperform
Lennar selloff appears 'overdone,' says Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Jay McCanless reiterates an Outperform rating and a $62 price target on Lennar, and would buy the shares at current levels. The analyst views the post-conference call selloff as "unwarranted" given Lennar reiterated the 2019 gross margin guidance and raised the midpoint of the annual closing guidance, while the company's average incentives on orders trended lower from Q4 of 2018 to Q2 of 2019 and lower mortgage rates drove buyer traffic in Q2 and brought back buyers who had previously been priced out by higher mortgage rates.
08/23/19
GHSC
08/23/19
INITIATION
Target $71
GHSC
Buy
Lennar initiated with a Buy at Seaport Global
Seaport Global analyst Mark Weintraub initiated Lennar with a Buy and $71 price target based on expectations of an organic growth re-acceleration and margin benefits from ongoing deleveraging and scaling of technology. Weintraub expects the company to benefit from a more asset light model and tempered land spend, which will free up cash for faster debt repayments and shareholder cash returns.
08/12/19
RHCO
08/12/19
INITIATION
RHCO
Hold
Lennar initiated with a Hold at SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Rohit Seth initiated Lennar with a Hold rating and $47 price target, citing integration risks for CalAtlantic, which the analyst said he sees "questionable synergies" with, along with higher land inventory than he'd like to see. However, Seth said that Lennar is on of the premier homebuilders, and could get past its headwinds, he would just wait for a better entry-point in the stock.
TMHC Taylor Morrison
$24.09

0.46 (1.95%)

05/16/19
05/16/19
UPGRADE

Fly Intel: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Macy's (M) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs with analyst Alexandra Walvis saying she sees a more balanced risk/reward in the wake of the stock's recent underperformance. 2. SAIC (SAIC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo with analyst Edward Caso saying he has "growing comfort" with the company's ongoing integration of its Engility acquisition and sees the deal producing a "notable improvement" in free cash flow. 3. Scorpio Tankers (STNG) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst Noah Parquette saying he's seen a considerable increase in interest from investors in the IMO 2020 product tanker story in recent weeks. 4. KB Home (KBH) and Taylor Morrison (TMHC) were upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital. 5. MYR Group (MYRG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel with analyst Noelle Dilts saying she sees "compelling dynamics" in the electric transmission and distribution market as utilities move investment toward power delivery in order to address reliability concerns, the need for grid hardening, and aging infrastructure. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
05/16/19
05/16/19
UPGRADE
Target $25

Outperform
Taylor Morrison upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital on reduced discounting
As previously reported, RBC Capital analyst Mike Dahl upgraded Taylor Morrison to Outperform and raised his price target to $25 from $23, saying the company's target gross margins appear to be more achievable with less prevalent price reductions. The analyst notes that Taylor Morrison's "breadth of pricing power" has relatively underperformed with 19% of base floor plans raising prices last month vs. 31% in its peer group, but reductions accounted for only 1% of base plans vs. 3% for its peers. Dahl also anticipates the company's order growth to pick up in the back half of 2019 as it begins to "lap easier comps" and benefits from its combination with A.V. Homes.
05/16/19
RBCM
05/16/19
UPGRADE
RBCM
Outperform
Taylor Morrison upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
08/01/19
RILY
08/01/19
UPGRADE
Target $26
RILY
Buy
Taylor Morrison upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley FBR
B. Riley FBR analyst Alex Rygiel upgraded Taylor Morrison Home to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target for the shares to $26 from $22. The analyst says "consistent" demand is carrying into the second half of 2019 following the company's "strong" Q2 results.
WLH William Lyon Homes
$19.13

0.53 (2.85%)

08/13/19
WEDB
08/13/19
UPGRADE
WEDB
Outperform
William Lyon Homes upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush
09/10/19
JMPS
09/10/19
UPGRADE
Target $23
JMPS
Outperform
William Lyon Homes upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities
JMP Securities analyst Peter Margin upgraded William Lyon Homes to Outperform from Market Perform with a $23 price target.
09/10/19
09/10/19
UPGRADE
Target $23

Outperform
William Lyon Homes raised to Outperform at JMP Securities on supportive rates
As previously reported, JMP Securities analyst Peter Martin upgraded William Lyon Homes to Outperform with a price target of $23 while also maintaining his FY19 and FY20 EPS forecasts of $1.75 and $2.5. The analyst assigns a 1.0-times forward 12-month book value multiple to the stock, citing his expectations of a continued supportive interest rate environment and no recession expected to hit in 2020. Martin is also positive on William Lyon's "solid backlog conversion" and the success of its lower-priced offerings in key western state markets.
08/13/19
08/13/19
UPGRADE
Target $21

Outperform
William Lyon Homes upgraded to Outperform on valuation at Wedbush
As previously reported, Wedbush analyst Jay McCanless upgraded William Lyon Homes to Outperform from Neutral and raised his price target on the shares to $21 from $20. The analyst believes the recent pullback in shares has "effectively discounted" the reduction in his 2019 EPS estimates following the Q2 results. Overall, he views the shares as undervalued at current levels.

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Powell says FOMC has…

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14:45
09/18/19
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14:45
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14:45
General news
Chair Powell at the podium: Powell said the Fed cut rates again »

Chair Powell at the…

FITB

Fifth Third

$28.24

0.05 (0.18%)

14:42
09/18/19
09/18
14:42
09/18/19
14:42
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Fifth Third decreases prime lending rate to 5% »

Fifth Third Bank…

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  • 22

    Oct

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

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-2.21 (-0.73%)

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14:41
09/18/19
09/18
14:41
09/18/19
14:41
General news
Fed Chair Powell says more rate cuts could be needed if economy weakens »

Asked if it remains his…

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$298.73

-2.21 (-0.73%)

SPX

S&P 500

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14:40
09/18/19
09/18
14:40
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14:40
General news
FOMC Forecast revisions »

FOMC Forecast revisions,…

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$298.88

-2.06 (-0.68%)

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14:38
09/18/19
09/18
14:38
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14:38
General news
Fed Chair says additional signs seen of weakness abroad »

Federal Reserve Chair…

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$298.88

-2.06 (-0.68%)

SPX

S&P 500

$0.00

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