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PM

Philip Morris

$75.29

0.74 (0.99%)

, MO

Altria Group

$44.65

0.25 (0.56%)

07:46
09/12/19
09/12
07:46
09/12/19
07:46

E-vapor regulation to hit Juul hard, 'odd time' for merger talks, says Citi

The Trump Administration said yesterday that it will "clear" the market of all non-tobacco flavored e-vapor products, including mint and menthol, Citi analyst Adam Spielman tells investors in a research note. The analyst had hoped the rules would have little impact on Juul as it has stopped supplying fruit flavors to physical stores. However, Trump's proposal is likely to hit Juul hard, as about three-quarter of its volume is in mint, says Spielman. Further, he believes at least half of British American Tobacco's (BTI) and IImperial Brands' (IMBBY) e-vapor volumes in the U.S. will be banned under the new definition. This all reinforces that this is an "odd time" for Philip Morris (PM) and Altria Group (MO) to be in merger talks, contends Spielman. The analyst, who doubts Trump's announcement will affect the talks between the companies, says the future of tobacco regulation in the U.S. is unclear currently. "We can only assume the companies have chosen to talk now because they are very confident about the outcomes. We, by contrast, see plenty of risk," writes Spielman.

PM

Philip Morris

$75.29

0.74 (0.99%)

MO

Altria Group

$44.65

0.25 (0.56%)

BTI

British American Tobacco

$37.69

0.88 (2.39%)

IMBBY

Imperial Brands

$0.00

(0.00%)

  • 12

    Nov

PM Philip Morris
$75.29

0.74 (0.99%)

09/10/19
PIPR
09/10/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $49
PIPR
Neutral
Altria Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery downgraded Altria Group (MO) to Neutral from Overweight and lowered his price target for the shares to $49 from $64. Following discussions between Altria and Philip Morris (PM) of a potential merger of equals, the analyst has less confidence in Altria's outlook. The analyst says any interest in a deal without a premium could suggest more stress on the underlying fundamentals and management's outlook for the future than he had appreciated. Further, the analyst adds that while potential earnings from the Juul stake may be underappreciated, he's also less confident on Altria's approval from the FTC and FDA. He prefers more clarity from regulators before getting more bullish on the vapor outlook.
09/05/19
MSCO
09/05/19
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Morgan Stanley sees little merit in recombining Philip Morris with Altria
Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman believes much of the rationale behind Philip Morris (PM) and Altria's (MO) split in 2008 remains valid and she sees little strategic or financial merit in a potential recombination, which the companies have confirmed they are discussing via a possible all-stock merger of equals. Gaining full control of IQOS in the U.S. does not justify such a transaction and while Philip Morris may be interested in buying Altria to gain exposure to JUUL, Kaufman noted that the former would also inherit the latter's noncompete with JUUL in vaping, impacting its ability to sell other e-cigs. Also, it is unclear if JUUL will be able to replicate its success internationally and there is significant risk in the U.S. given uncertainty around JUUL's FDA approval, she believes. Kaufman has an Equal Weight rating on Altria shares and an Overweight rating on Philip Morris International.
09/04/19
SBSH
09/04/19
NO CHANGE
SBSH
Citi sees 'significant chance' of Philip Morris, Altria deal not going ahead
In the last month, Philip Morris (PM) has fallen 16% and Altria Group (MO) 10% as investors seem skeptical about the benefits of the proposed merger, Citi analyst Adam Spielman tells investors in a research note. As such, there is a "significant chance" that investor skepticism causes the proposed merger to fail, either because the managements call it off, or because it fails to pass one or both shareholder votes, unless the companies can present compelling new reasons for the merger to shareholders, contends the analyst. Should the deal fail, Spielman expects Philip Morris shares to "bounce nicely." If Philip Morris shareholders wanted iQos exposure in the U.S. they could simply buy Altria stock, says Spielman. Furthermore, a merger ensures Philip Morris shareholders are exposed to U.S. cigarette volume declines and regulatory risk, adds the analyst. In addition, while there would be cost synergies of about $600M, boosting combined earnings by about 3%, investors in tobacco are currently focused on sustainable sales growth, not near-term earnings, Spielman writes. "As we stated, we are unconvinced by the arguments we've heard so far," he points out.
08/28/19
JPMS
08/28/19
NO CHANGE
JPMS
Neutral
Philip Morris selloff on Altria merger talks overdone, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Celine Pannuti views the selloff in shares of Philip Morris (PM) following confirmation of the company's merger talks with Altria Group (MO) as overdone. The deal leads to value accretion at no premium and U.S. regulatory risks are already embedded in the sector de-rating, Pannuti tells investors in a research note. The analyst also sees the weakness in British American Tobacco (BTI) shares as a buying opportunity. The consideration of a merger between Philip Morris and Altria is a vote of confidence in the U.S. combustibles profit pool, contrary to current market sentiment, says Pannuti. The analyst keeps a Neutral rating on Philip Morris with an $86 price target.
MO Altria Group
$44.65

0.25 (0.56%)

09/09/19
PIPR
09/09/19
DOWNGRADE
PIPR
Neutral
Altria Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
BTI British American Tobacco
$37.69

0.88 (2.39%)

07/16/19
WELS
07/16/19
NO CHANGE
WELS
Wells says Nielsen restatement could be positive for Monster, tobacco stocks
Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog noted that Nielsen (NLSN) just announced that it will restate data to address serious issues with its calculation methodology in the convenience store channel related to projections it applied to independent c-stores. The restated data, to be released on August 20, is expected to improve cigarette and energy drink trends and she views this as a positive for tobacco stocks and Monster Beverage (MNST). Publicly traded companies in the tobacco space include Altria Group (MO), British American Tobacco (BTI) and Philip Morris (PM).
07/10/19
PIPR
07/10/19
DOWNGRADE
PIPR
Neutral
British American Tobacco downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery downgraded British American Tobacco to Neutral and lowered his price target to GBP 31 from GBP 33, saying its U.S. outlook is challenged by the competitive pressure from IQOS and JUUL.
08/27/19
SBSH
08/27/19
NO CHANGE
SBSH
Citi sees no antitrust reason to stop Philip Morris, Altria deal
Citi analyst Adam Spielman is surprised by the merger talks between Philip Morris (MO) and Altria Group (MO) but feels the deal is likely to go ahead as he sees no antitrust reason to stop it. With the combined company likely a stronger competitor, the potential deal is not a positive for both British American Tobacco (BTI) and Imperial Brands (IMBBY), Spielman tells investors in a research note.
IMBBY Imperial Brands
$0.00

(0.00%)

03/06/19
JEFF
03/06/19
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Gottlieb resignation positive for tobacco sentiment, says Jefferies
The resignation of FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb is a net positive for tobacco sentiment, particularly for British American Tobacco (BTI) as it should lessen concerns related to any possible action around a menthol ban near term, Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett tells investors in a research note. A potential delay to guidelines around e-vapour restrictions could also support both British American and Imperial Brands (IMBBY), adds the analyst.
05/28/19
SBSH
05/28/19
NO CHANGE
SBSH
Cigarette data from Nielsen 'dire,' industry data also 'very bad,' says Citi
Citi analyst Adam Spielman noted that Nielsen reported earlier today that cigarette industry volumes fell 11.2% in the four weeks ended May 18, noting that shares of Altria (MO), British American Tobacco (BTI) and Imperial (IMBBY) all fell following the "dire" data. Volumes in MSAi, the industry database that he regards as much more reliable than Nielsen, were down 6.4% in the same period, which Spielman said "is still a very bad figure, but it is a lot, lot better than the Nielsen one." Looking ahead, the analyst said he expects "gradually less bad" volumes in Nielsen in the rest of the year, though he noted that Altria has said it expects industry volumes to fall about 4%-5% this year and he forecasts a decline of about 6%. In late afternoon trading, Altria shares are down 4.5%, British American has declined over 4% and Philip Morris (PM) is down 5%.
03/28/19
SBSH
03/28/19
UPGRADE
SBSH
Buy
Imperial Brands upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi
Citi analyst Adam Spielman upgraded Imperial Brands to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target for the shares to GBP 30 from GBP 27. The analyst believes organic revenue growth for tobacco companies will pick up this year as sales of next generation products accelerate. Further, the regulatory threat will probably move away from cigarettes, Spielman tells investors in a research note. He thinks an even greater focus on e-vapor cigarettes could be positive for both British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands.

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IRBT

iRobot

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1.2 (2.08%)

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CSCO

Cisco

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TMUS

T-Mobile

$79.88

0.13 (0.16%)

, S

Sprint

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SIG

Signet Jewelers

$15.36

-0.39 (-2.48%)

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UAL

United Airlines

$89.13

1.23 (1.40%)

10:50
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INCY

Incyte

$78.05

-0.47 (-0.60%)

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PNC

PNC Financial

$143.07

3.51 (2.52%)

10:47
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PNC

PNC Financial

$143.11

3.55 (2.54%)

10:45
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PNC

PNC Financial

$143.11

3.55 (2.54%)

10:45
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UAL

United Airlines

$89.05

1.15 (1.31%)

, BA

Boeing

$370.43

-0.56 (-0.15%)

10:43
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Hot Stocks
Breaking Hot Stocks news story on United Airlines, Boeing »

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UAL

United Airlines

$89.05

1.15 (1.31%)

BA

Boeing

$370.43

-0.56 (-0.15%)

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PNC

PNC Financial

$143.12

3.56 (2.55%)

10:43
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UAL

United Airlines

$88.99

1.09 (1.24%)

10:42
10/16/19
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United Airlines plans to increase aircraft size to help with costs »

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CBRE

CBRE Group

$52.66

0.19 (0.36%)

10:40
10/16/19
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Size put roll is legged in CBRE Group »

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PNC

PNC Financial

$142.83

3.27 (2.34%)

10:34
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ALXN

Alexion

$102.75

-2.095 (-2.00%)

, ACHN

Achillion

$6.34

2.685 (73.46%)

10:31
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ALXN

Alexion

$102.75

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ACHN

Achillion

$6.34

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IRBT

iRobot

$59.38

1.59 (2.75%)

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WBA

Walgreens Boots Alliance

$54.85

0.34 (0.62%)

10:25
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ABC

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$88.20

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$50.83

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ABC

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$88.20

5.02 (6.04%)

CAH

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$50.83

2.9 (6.05%)

MCK

McKesson

$148.00

9.83 (7.11%)

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VZ

Verizon

$60.11

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$60.11

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$45.42

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T

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CDXC

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$3.19

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AXSM

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$20.68

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ADBE

Adobe

$267.83

-11.57 (-4.14%)

, AYI

Acuity Brands

$122.30

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ADBE

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AYI

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COST

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$2.47

-0.18 (-6.79%)

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JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

$135.77

2.93 (2.21%)

, FMC

FMC Corporation

$84.39

1.33 (1.60%)

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2.93 (2.21%)

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FMC Corporation

$84.39

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$17.92

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PDFS

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BLDR

Builders FirstSource

$22.13

0.59 (2.74%)

BMCH

BMC Stock Holdings

$26.94

0.79 (3.02%)

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