Fed SEP forecasts: t
Fed SEP forecasts: the FOMC will release it's updated economic projections alongside the policy statement on Wednesday. Analysts expect a quarter point rate cut, but expect the Committee to refrain from signaling any further action this year. And analysts assume the dot plot medians will show no policy change from the September level either later this year or in 2020. As to the economic forecasts, analysts assume boosts in the Fed's 2019 GDP estimates given the firm growth trajectory into Q3, adding roughly 0.2 percentage points to the current 2.0%-2.2% central tendency that narrows the gap to our own 2.5% forecast. Analysts expect low-end GDP estimates for 2020 to be raised as well. The high-end jobless rate forecasts will also need to be lowered to more align with the current jobless rate trend. Analysts expect no change in the official 2019 PCE chain price estimates, of 1.5%-1.6% for the headline and 1.7%-1.8% for the core, though analysts may see some narrowing in the ranges.