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AVD

American Vanguard

$15.26

0.25 (1.67%)

16:37
10/15/19
10/15
16:37
10/15/19
16:37

American Vanguard sees Q3 sales approximately $123M, consensus $140.43M

Within the overall top line, net sales of the company's international businesses rose approximately 24% compared to the third quarter of 2018, while domestic sales were flat. This change in top line performance, coupled with lower factory absorption, higher operating expenses arising largely from acquisitions, and other factors, will adversely affect net income for the period. Thus, management expects that quarterly earnings per share are likely to be less than half of the consensus estimate and will provide conclusive data on that subject in its next earnings release. Eric Wintemute, Chairman and CEO of American Vanguard commented, "We are, of course, disappointed that we did not achieve our forecasted numbers. Having said that, I am encouraged that we recorded strong growth from our international businesses, driven by Canada and Brazil. We would have had even stronger international results, but for the worldwide shortage of the bromacil herbicide, which we sell into several countries. Domestic growth during the third quarter was constrained by record-setting heat and dry conditions, which reduced demand for our defoliants, as well as for our fungicide Equus, which is used largely on peanuts and potatoes. In addition, sales of our post-harvest soil fumigants did not materialize to the extent we had forecasted in the quarter, due largely to weather-related delays in planting and harvest." Wintemute continued, "Focusing on full year 2019 results, we expect consolidated sales to increase by about 6% year-over-year with mixed performance among our major markets. International sales should increase by about 27% for the full year. However, our domestic sales will likely decrease by about 5% on a per annum basis, which we believe is consistent with industry-wide forecasts showing domestic markets receding by 6% to 12%. With these considerations in mind, we are revising our full year 2019 net sales forecast downward to approximately $480 million. Other previously forecasted financial metrics relating to 2019 remain unchanged since our last earnings call." Wintemute added, "As for our 2020 outlook, we see many countervailing factors that could affect our markets. For example, with respect to our domestic markets, a shortened growing season and the likelihood of impending frost could lead to lower yield and increased demand for crops such as corn in 2020. However, new developments in tariffs and buying patterns by China are pushing commodity prices in different directions seemingly every week. Despite shifting conditions, with channel inventory of our products at low levels, we are poised to maintain domestic market share and to take advantage of upsides as they materialize. Further, with respect to our international business, our footprint covers a multitude of markets, from which we expect continued stability and growth." Wintemute concluded, "We will provide additional detail on our third quarter and year-to-date performance as well as our outlook on prospects for the fourth quarter and beyond during our earnings call scheduled for 1:30 p.m. PST on Tuesday, November 5, 2019. At that time, we will also provide an update on longer-term considerations, such as technology development, including the strong interest we are seeing from our industry peers in connection with SIMPAS."

  • 19

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    Nov

AVD American Vanguard
$15.26

0.25 (1.67%)

11/20/18
LOOP
11/20/18
UPGRADE
Target $29
LOOP
Buy
American Vanguard upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital
Loop Capital analyst Chris Kapsch upgraded American Vanguard to Buy and raised his price target for the shares to $29 from $24. Despite "much negativity" surrounding the broader agriculture end market amid the ongoing Trump/China trade war, American Vanguard is "navigating and executing admirably," Kapsch tells investors in a research note. Via acquisitions, the company has diversified away from its former leverage to cash row crops, says the analyst. As such, Kapsch believes the weak commodity prices are not having a major impact on American Vanguard's underlying fundamentals. He says the stock is "too cheap" at current levels and that there is upside potential for 2019.
11/20/18
11/20/18
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. LyondellBasell (LYB) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital with analyst Arun Viswanathan saying the shares look attractive when investors "look through oil and market volatility," anticipating the company to post "robust" EBITDA growth in 2019 and 2020. 2. BP (BP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James with analyst Jean-Pierre Dmirdjian saying poor year-to-date share performance has created an attractive entry point. He also said shares screen well on free cash flow, oil leverage, and production growth. 3. CME Group (CME) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg with analyst Chris Turner saying he expects "unsettled markets" in 2019 to provide a supportive backdrop for volumes in CME's core interest rate and currency products. 4. American Vanguard (AVD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital with analyst Chris Kapsch saying despite "much negativity" surrounding the broader agriculture end market amid the ongoing Trump/China trade war, American Vanguard is "navigating and executing admirably." 5. EQT Corporation (EQT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs with analyst Brian Singer saying he believes the company's production guidance calling for 5% asset sale-adjusted growth in 2019 is conservative. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

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CRSP

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PFGC

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WNC

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ALSN

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CMI

Cummins

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VMC

Vulcan Materials

$140.72

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SUM

Summit Materials

$24.18

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