Action Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: the economic outlook remains very complicated amid a number of crosscurrents which have also created a split on the FOMC’s policy outlooks. Growth has clearly lost momentum thanks to the many uncertainties emanating from the tariff frictions, Brexit woes, the slowing in European and Chinese growth, and the downturn in manufacturing, to name a few. With inflation generally remaining soft, the FOMC chose to trim rates in July and September, though the latter action was met with rare dis-unity, including two dissents against easing and one in favor of more aggressive action. Meanwhile, over the last week there have been some signs of progress on a trade deal, possible resolution on Brexit, and some better than expected data, especially on the consumer. This week’s Survey Medians, however, continue to show another rate cut to a 1.75% to 1.50% band, is the odds on favorite. But the outlook is not unanimous. Most also suspect the Fed will hold off on further action over the rest of the year. There's a lot of key data out over the next two weeks, though some will come too late for the Fed. Next week's existing home sales report is expected to show a decline to a 5.450 M clip, with new home sales seen slipping to 0.700 M, after gains in August for both. Durable orders are expected to decline 0.9%. Q3 GDP, due out October 30, should slow to a 1.7% clip.