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NUE

Nucor

$55.89

0.64 (1.16%)

, CMC

Commercial Metals

$20.94

0.415 (2.02%)

08:27
11/26/19
11/26
08:27
11/26/19
08:27

Credit Suisse lowers steel price deck, says 'fade the rally'

Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth noted that mill outages and restocking have driven a sharp recovery in HRC steel prices from their October lows, but he suggests investors "fade the Q1 rally" as he sees U.S. HRC prices peaking in the first quarter before falling in the second half of 2020 as Big River ramps up Phase II, JSW more fully optimizes assets and imports rise. The global steel market is in recession and the firm estimates U.S. flat rolled demand for 2019 to be lowest in past six years, Woodworth noted. He has Outperform ratings on Nucor (NUE) and Commercial Metals (CMC), as he sees them having significant leverage to accelerating public infrastructure spending, keeps Underperform ratings on U.S. Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS), which he sees having the most risk from supply side rebalancing, and maintains a Neutral rating on Steel Dynamics (STLD).

NUE

Nucor

$55.89

0.64 (1.16%)

CMC

Commercial Metals

$20.94

0.415 (2.02%)

X

U.S. Steel

$13.79

0.33 (2.45%)

AKS

AK Steel

$2.71

0.15 (5.86%)

MT

ArcelorMittal

$17.45

0.27 (1.57%)

STLD

Steel Dynamics

$33.39

0.77 (2.36%)

NUE Nucor
$55.89

0.64 (1.16%)

09/23/19
JPMS
09/23/19
DOWNGRADE
JPMS
Underweight
JPMorgan double downgrades AK Steel, cuts U.S. Steel on flattish price outlook
JPMorgan analyst Michael Gambardella earlier today lowered his estimates and price targets for the steel companies to reflect a "more flattish" steel price environment. The analyst also double downgraded AK Steel (AKS) to Underweight from Overweight and downgraded U.S. Steel (X) to Neutral Overweight. He removed U.S. Steel from his firm's Analyst Focus List. The U.S. steel stocks and steel prices have been under pressure this year, which is largely due to concerns about supply additions planned for the next several years, continued uncertainty surrounding trade, and some softening in demand, Gambardella tells investors in a research note. Further, after a brief rebound, steel and scrap prices are now heading lower, adds the analyst. He kept Overweight ratings on Commercial Metals (CMC), Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), and Stelco Holdings (STZHF).
11/14/19
EXAN
11/14/19
INITIATION
Target $71
EXAN
Outperform
Nucor initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Exane BNP Paribas analyst Luc Pez initiated coverage of Nucor with an Outperform rating and $71 price target.
11/13/19
KEYB
11/13/19
NO CHANGE
Target $125
KEYB
Overweight
Nucor, Reliance Steel price targets raised at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Philip Gibbs raised his price targets for Overweight-rated Nucor (NUE) and Reliance Steel (RS) to $62 from $60 and $125 from $120, respectively. In a research note to investors, Gibbs says that following recent due diligence, including his firm's Q4 "SoS" survey, estimates rise on primary carbon sheet spreads on better mill supply discipline against easing de-stocking pressures and subdued raw materials. The analyst says he continues to favor Nucor and Reliance Steel over a long-term horizon.
11/13/19
KEYB
11/13/19
UPGRADE
Target $21
KEYB
Overweight
ArcelorMittal upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Philip Gibbs upgraded ArcelorMittal (MT) to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $21 price target to reflect easing costs and inflecting spot steel margins, and a potential path to exit its troubled Ilva assets. In a research note to investors, Gibbs says that following recent due diligence, including his firm's Q4 "SoS" survey, estimates rise on primary carbon sheet spreads on better mill supply discipline against easing de-stocking pressures and subdued raw materials. The analyst says Overweight-rated Nucor (NUE) and Reliance Steel (RS) are his favorite through-cycle investments, while ArcellorMittal's valuation vs. trough EBITDA has become "intriguing."
CMC Commercial Metals
$20.94

0.415 (2.02%)

09/23/19
09/23/19
DOWNGRADE

Fly Intel: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Alcoa (AA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs. 2. Commercial Metals (CMC) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs while Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral. 3. AK Steel (AKS) was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JPMorgan while Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and U.S. Steel (X) were downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. 4. Clorox (CLX) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays. 5. Spirit Airlines (SAVE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens with analyst Jack Atkins saying with its heavy Southeast and Caribbean exposure, Spirit significantly lowered its Q3 guidance in early September due to Hurricane Dorian. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
11/14/19
EXAN
11/14/19
INITIATION
Target $29.7
EXAN
Outperform
Commercial Metals initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Exane BNP Paribas analyst Luc Pez initiated coverage of Commercial Metals with an Outperform rating and $29.70 price target.
11/26/19
BMOC
11/26/19
INITIATION
Target $23
BMOC
Market Perform
Commercial Metals initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Matt Cartoceti initiated coverage of Commercial Metals with a Market Perform rating and $23 price target. Given the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of current metal margins, the analyst awaits a buying opportunity at lower levels as spreads compress.
X U.S. Steel
$13.79

0.33 (2.45%)

11/05/19
ARGS
11/05/19
DOWNGRADE
ARGS
Hold
U.S. Steel downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
Argus downgraded U.S. Steel to Hold from Buy.
11/05/19
11/05/19
DOWNGRADE

Fly Intel: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Under Armour (UA, UAA) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman Sachs and to Neutral from Outperform at Baird. 2. Hudson (HUD) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill with analyst Marisa Sullivan saying after a "disappointing" set of Q3 results and Q4 guidance, she sees an "increasingly uncertain" outlook for the company's core business despite the contributions being made from the OHM and Brookstone acquisitions. 3. Stryker (SYK) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays with analyst Kristen Stewart saying while Stryker remains a "strong company fundamentally," the stock's performance over the next year is likely to be restrained by the outstanding Wright Medical Group (WMGI)m which is not expected to close until Q3 of 2020. 4. U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus with analyst David Coleman saying its Q3 earnings came in "significantly short" relative to his estimates. 5. Prudential (PRU) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo with analyst Elyse Greenspan saying the company's quarterly EPS of $3.22 handily beat estimates, but this was the second quarter in a row where earnings have been re-based lower. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
11/05/19
ARGS
11/05/19
DOWNGRADE
ARGS
Hold
U.S. Steel downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
Argus analyst David Coleman downgraded U.S. Steel to Hold from Buy after its Q3 earnings came in "significantly short" relative to his estimates, also lowering his FY19 and FY20 EPS views by 83c and $1.36 to $50c and 29c respectively. The analyst notes that the "highly competitive" steel industry is being affected by "excess global capacity", marked by limited price increases during periods of economic growth and price decreases during periods of economic contraction. Coleman further cites industry competition coming from producers of aluminum, cement, composites, glass, plastics and wood.
11/14/19
EXAN
11/14/19
INITIATION
Target $10.5
EXAN
Underperform
U.S. Steel initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Exane BNP Paribas analyst Luc Pez initiated coverage of U.S. Steel with an Underperform rating and $10.50 price target.
AKS AK Steel
$2.71

0.15 (5.86%)

11/14/19
EXAN
11/14/19
INITIATION
Target $2
EXAN
Underperform
AK Steel initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Exane BNP Paribas analyst Luc Pez initiated coverage of AK Steel with an Underperform rating and $2 price target.
09/23/19
JPMS
09/23/19
DOWNGRADE
JPMS
Underweight
AK Steel downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Michael Gambardella double downgraded AK Steel to Underweight from Overweight.
MT ArcelorMittal
$17.45

0.27 (1.57%)

11/13/19
KEYB
11/13/19
UPGRADE
Target $21
KEYB
Overweight
ArcelorMittal upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Philip Gibbs upgraded ArcelorMittal to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $21 price target.
11/11/19
UBSW
11/11/19
UPGRADE
UBSW
Buy
ArcelorMittal upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
UBS analyst Myles Allsop upgraded ArcelorMittal to Buy from Neutral with a price target of EUR18, up from EUR13 citing expanding 2020 margins from falling raw material costs.
11/11/19
CCMC
11/11/19
DOWNGRADE
CCMC
Hold
ArcelorMittal downgraded to Hold from Buy at Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Ingo Schachel downgraded ArcelorMittal to Hold from Buy with a EUR15.50 price target.
STLD Steel Dynamics
$33.39

0.77 (2.36%)

11/14/19
EXAN
11/14/19
INITIATION
Target $40
EXAN
Outperform
Steel Dynamics initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Exane BNP Paribas analyst Luc Pez initiated coverage of Steel Dynamics with an Outperform rating and $40 price target.
09/05/19
BMOC
09/05/19
DOWNGRADE
BMOC
Market Perform
Steel Dynamics downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
09/05/19
BMOC
09/05/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $30
BMOC
Market Perform
Steel Dynamics downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst David Gagliano downgraded Steel Dynamics (STLD) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered his price target for the shares to $30 from $40. The analyst, who still believes shares are undervalued on longer-term fair value estimates, finds the stock's risk/reward more balanced in the near term. There is more downside risk versus upside potential to underlying spot prices into year end, and Steel Dynamics' near-term company-specific catalysts are limited, Gagliano tells investors in a research note. He believes the company, between now and 2022, is more exposed to near-term spot steel pricing volatility. Gagliano coupled the downgrade of Steel Dynamics with an upgrade of Arch Coal (ARCH) to Outperform from Market Perform.

TODAY'S FREE FLY STORIES

AGIO

Agios Pharmaceuticals

$40.93

0.81 (2.02%)

18:40
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BPMC

Blueprint Medicines

$78.50

3.92 (5.26%)

18:34
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Blueprint Medicines analyst commentary  »

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FATE

Fate Therapeutics

$13.64

0.07 (0.52%)

18:29
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Fate Therapeutics analyst commentary  »

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RCKT

Rocket Pharmaceuticals

$22.37

2.61 (13.21%)

18:05
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ARGX

Argenx

$147.31

-2.56 (-1.71%)

, JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

$140.36

0.79 (0.57%)

18:03
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Recommendations
Argenx, Johnson & Johnson analyst commentary  »

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ARGX

Argenx

$147.31

-2.56 (-1.71%)

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

$140.36

0.79 (0.57%)

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BLUE

Bluebird Bio

$79.51

-1.24 (-1.54%)

, JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

$140.36

0.79 (0.57%)

17:58
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17:58
Recommendations
Bluebird Bio, Johnson & Johnson, Amgen, Bristol-Myers, Regeneron analyst commentary  »

Piper says…

BLUE

Bluebird Bio

$79.51

-1.24 (-1.54%)

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

$140.36

0.79 (0.57%)

AMGN

Amgen

$233.74

0.3 (0.13%)

BMY

Bristol-Myers

$59.94

0.435 (0.73%)

REGN

Regeneron

$372.26

4.02 (1.09%)

03/08/13
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BGNE

BeiGene

$186.89

-2.3 (-1.22%)

17:50
12/08/19
12/08
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17:50
Hot Stocks
BeiGene announces data from two clinical trials of Brukinsa at ASH meeting »

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LLY

Eli Lilly

$119.59

-0.175 (-0.15%)

16:34
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Hot Stocks
Eli Lilly presents interim clinical data from LOXO-305 dose escalation trial »

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BMY

Bristol-Myers

$59.94

0.435 (0.73%)

16:32
12/08/19
12/08
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16:32
Hot Stocks
Bristol-Myers announces data from multiple liso-cel studies at ASH meeting »

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QURE

uniQure

$66.06

1.5 (2.32%)

16:26
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Hot Stocks
uniQure reports 1-year follow-up data from etranacogene dezaparvovec study »

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  • 09

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FTSV

Forty Seven

$14.40

0.23 (1.62%)

15:56
12/08/19
12/08
15:56
12/08/19
15:56
Conference/Events
Forty Seven to hold an investor event »

Investor Event will be…

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  • 09

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AQST

Aquestive Therapeutics

$8.02

-0.34 (-4.07%)

15:50
12/08/19
12/08
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12/08/19
15:50
Conference/Events
Aquestive Therapeutics holds analyst & investor event w/conference call hookup »

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APRE

Aprea Therapeutics

$26.20

1.995 (8.24%)

15:23
12/08/19
12/08
15:23
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15:23
Conference/Events
Aprea Therapeutics to hold a clinical update meeting »

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BPMC

Blueprint Medicines

$78.50

3.92 (5.26%)

15:18
12/08/19
12/08
15:18
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15:18
Conference/Events
Blueprint Medicines to hold an anlayst and investor event »

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  • 08

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IFF

International Flavors

$142.03

0.21 (0.15%)

, DD

DuPont

$63.60

1.6 (2.58%)

13:47
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Periodicals
International Flavors in talks to buy DuPont nutrition unit, Bloomberg reports »

International Flavors…

IFF

International Flavors

$142.03

0.21 (0.15%)

DD

DuPont

$63.60

1.6 (2.58%)

KRYAY

Kerry Group

$0.00

(0.00%)

03/08/13
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CHWRF

China Tower

$0.00

(0.00%)

13:40
12/08/19
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13:40
Upgrade
China Tower rating change at Deutsche Bank »

China Tower upgraded to…

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PRNB

Principia Biopharma

$37.30

0.86 (2.36%)

13:37
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13:37
Recommendations
Principia Biopharma analyst commentary at Stifel »

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DY

Dycom

$50.93

0.495 (0.98%)

12:48
12/08/19
12/08
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12:48
Syndicate
Dycom withdraws senior notes offering due to market conditions »

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IMV

IMV Inc.

$2.92

0.07 (2.46%)

12:30
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Hot Stocks
IMV announces updated results from Phase 2 study of DPX-Survivac »

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KURA

Kura Oncology

$15.67

0.48 (3.16%)

12:27
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Hot Stocks
Kura Oncology announces updates for lead drug candidate tipifarnib »

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  • 08

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PTLA

Portola Pharmaceuticals

$29.22

0.86 (3.03%)

12:24
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Hot Stocks
Portola presents interim results from Phase 2a study of cerdulatinib »

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11:25
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Conference/Events
Piper Jaffray biotech analysts to hold a KOL luncheon »

Biotech Analysts hold a…

FATE

Fate Therapeutics

$13.64

0.07 (0.52%)

10:49
12/08/19
12/08
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10:49
Hot Stocks
Fate Therapeutics announces vivo preclinical data for FT596 »

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STOK

Stoke Therapeutics

$28.91

3.99 (16.01%)

10:04
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12/08
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10:04
Hot Stocks
Stoke Therapeutics presents STK-001 preclinical data in Dravet syndrome »

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AUTL

Autolus Therapeutics

$14.60

-0.18 (-1.22%)

09:25
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12/08
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09:25
Hot Stocks
Autolus announces new data highlighting progress on AUTO3 »

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  • 09

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