The U.S. ISM drop to 48.1
The U.S. ISM drop to 48.1 in November from 48.3 defied an assumed bounce, and left a four-month string of readings in the sub-50 contraction zone. The ISM joins the list of sentiment reports that have failed to show some lift from the ending of the UAW-GM strike in late-October. Weakness in the ISM and Chicago PMI have exacerbated market fears about the manufacturing sector since the weak round of September reports, though the firm round of October Jobs data trimmed the market's recession fears. Surveys remain exposed to pockets of weakness each month thanks to competing opinions about the trade war, a dynamic global backdrop, and stock price swings. Analysts expect the ISM-adjusted average of all the major sentiment surveys to fall to 51 in November from the 52-53 range over the five months ending in October. Analysts've more generally seen erratic sentiment swings in 2019 that analysts attribute to competing opinions about the trade war and other global developments.