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11:00
03/24/20
03/24
11:00
03/24/20
11:00

The Richmond Fed index defied the coronavirus

The Richmond Fed index defied the coronavirus with a surprising 4-point March rise to 2, after tumbling 22 points to -2 in February from a 16-month high of 20.0 in January, versus a 6-year low of -12.0 last July and a recession-low of -35.0 over the three months through January of 2009. The ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed also rose, to a 54.7 from 51.9 in February and a 16-month high of 58.5 in January. Analysts saw a 6-year low of 48.3 in July and a recession-low of 39.0 in February of 2009. Today's strong Richmond Fed figures accompany big headline drops for the Philly Fed and Empire State surveys, though the components for those surveys were also surprisingly resilient. The sentiment indexes will presumably all be hit eventually by mandatory closures with the coronavirus and the financial market meltdown, on top of the demand hit initially associated with the pandemic, and the oil price plunge with the OPEC price war. Yet, the hit is apparently going to lag in some surveys. The Richmond data probably received support from strong survey responses earlier in the month. Analysts expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys to collapse to levels near all-time lows by April, though resilience in the first half of March is supporting the monthly average. Analysts peg the March average at a 47 expansion-low, versus a prior 48.3 expansion-low in February of 2016, and a 37.1 recession-low in March of 2009. Analysts saw averages of 54 in January and February, and 51 last November and December.

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Downgrade
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Conference/Events
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