2020-06-09 10:30:01 10:30 06/09/20 06/0910:30 06/09/2010:30 | The U.S. wholesale trade reportThe U.S. wholesale trade report undershot estimates, with a -16.9% record-drop in sales and small downward bumps for inventories in both March and April. Inventories were sharply depressed through March, global shutdowns accompanied an unwind of tariff front running and a big pullback in imports from China that started in mid-2019. The bilateral trade gap for goods between the U.S. and China plunged to an $11.8 B trough in March that marked the smallest gap since 2004, before doubling to a $22.5 B level in April alongside the wholesale inventory rise. The wholesale inventory undershoot of -$1 B is still consistent with our assumption of no net revision in the -5.0% Q1 GDP growth clip. Analysts still expect Q2 GDP growth of -32.0%, with a $99 B contribution from inventories after an estimated -$88.2 (was -$80.2) B subtraction in Q1 that left a deep liquidation rate of an estimated -$75.2 (was -$67.2) B. Analysts assume a -1.3% (was -1.2%) April business inventory drop after a -0.3% (was -0.2%) decline in March, with a -0.4% component drop for factories and a -3.6% retail plunge as shown in the advance indicators report. |
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