Canaccord analyst David Hynes Jr. "would not be surprised" to see heightened volatility into pending lockup expiration
Snowflake (SNOW) is expected to report third quarter results after market close on Wednesday, December 2, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. This will be the first earnings report as a public company. What to watch for:
'BLOWOUT' QUARTER: Ahead of Snowflake's earnings report, Canaccord analyst David Hynes Jr. told investors that he believes this quarter is "going to be a blowout." However, the analyst believes it "certainly seems priced into the stock." While Hynes acknowledged that "this is a great business with lots of upside ahead," he cautioned investors to "get through the lockup and see where the stock stands."
The analyst highlighted the company's pending lockup expiration, which calls for 25% of restricted Snowflake shares to become tradable in mid-December, with the remaining 75% of locks coming off two days after the company reports its fourth quarter results, likely in late February. He would "not be surprised" to see heightened volatility around these two events, and so would suggest investors be opportunistic around those dates. Hynes has a Hold rating on the shares.
MOMENTUM REFLECTED IN VALUATION: Back in October, Loop Capital analyst Yun Kim initiated coverage of Snowflake with a Hold rating and $250 price target. The analyst acknowledged that the company is emerging as the "leader in a cloud data lake and cloud data platform markets," offering one of the best ways to play the current cloud migration secular trend. Kim also added that given the "highly economical" storage architecture and "highly elastic" computing resources, he anticipates a plethora of new use cases to emerge as data migration to the cloud continues. However, with the stock trading at 61-times expected 2021 sales - relative to peer group multiple of 25-times -, Kim argued that much of Snowflake's sales momentum is reflected in its valuation.
The same day, Cowen analyst J. Derrick Wood also started coverage of Snowflake with an Outperform rating and $295 price target. The analyst argued that the company's story is in "rare air," with it poised to reach $1B in revenue more quickly than any other software name. Snowflake has "game-changing technology," solving "decades-old problems" that will disrupt the database market, the analyst said.
WHAT'S NOTABLE: The cloud data warehousing company backed by Salesforce (CRM) and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) opened for trading on September 16 at $245 per share after having priced its initial public offering at $120, making it the biggest software IPO ever.
PRICE ACTION: In afternoon trading, shares of Snowflake have dropped more than 4% to $292.97, but are up about 16% since its IPO.