The 534k November ADP rise

The 534k November ADP rise beat our 380k private BLS payroll estimate with a 440k total BLS payroll gain, after a slight trimming in the October ADP rise to 570k from 571k that widened the gap to the 604k BLS private payroll increase in that month. Upside surprises were broad-based, with solid gains of 110k for goods sector jobs and 424k for private service jobs led again by the leisure sector. Within goods, analysts saw gains of 50k for factories, 52k for construction, and 7k for mining. Analysts have a 12-month average "as reported" ADP gain through October of 437k, versus a 12-month average BLS private payroll rise of 453k. Analysts saw ADP "as reported" undershoot of -33k in October, after a 203k overshoot in September, and undershoots of -130k in August, -486k in July and -117k in June. The figures suggest upside risk for Friday's jobs report, though the ADP figures remain an unreliable predictor of monthly payroll swings.