2022-05-05 09:05:01 $ECON Economic Data
05/05/22 05/0509:05 05/05/2209:05 | The huge U.S. Q1 productivity contraction rate of -7.5%The huge U.S. Q1 productivity contraction rate of -7.5% undershot estimates due to a big 5.5% Q1 rise for the hours-worked index that beat the 3.5% rate from the last jobs report, alongside a -2.4% Q1 contraction rate in the BLS output index as implied by the GDP data. The lean 3.2% hourly compensation rise still translated to a hefty 11.6% unit labor cost gain. Productivity may now be reversing some of the acceleration through the pandemic, as low-wage workers return to the labor pool after the pandemic exit, leaving a drop in hours-worked after the pandemic boost. The pandemic mix appeared to lift productivity, and the reversal is now dampening it. For our Q2 productivity forecasts, analysts expect a 1.5% pace, alongside gains of 4.5% for output, 3.1% for hours-worked, 4.5% for hourly compensation and 3.0% for unit labor costs. The annual productivity figures revealed a solid 1.9% gain in 2021, after robust increases of 2.4% in 2020, 2.1% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2018, leaving the four biggest increases since 2010. Analysts expect a -0.5% drop for 2022 that trims the overshoot. |
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