2022-12-02 15:30:02 $ECON Economic Data
12/02/22 12/0215:30 12/02/2215:30 | Fed outlookFed outlook: the interesting mix in the payroll report ups the ante for the December 13 CPI data. While it is unlikely the FOMC will wrongfoot the markets with a fifth jumbo 75 bp boost after Chair Powell's reiteration of a likely downshift to a 50 bp hike, the price data in conjunction with today's numbers will have important implications for the tone at the upcoming meeting and the projected path of rates in early 2023. The strength in the wage data argues for additional tightening, but the signs of slowing growth will support the calls for a moderate boost, leaving a 50 bp increase the best choice. And though inflation should be cooling, pressures should still be too high for Fed officials liking, warranting an additional 25 bp increase in March. The markets, however, continue to price in a 4.92% terminal rate in May and a cut by the end of the year. |
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