The 0.8% February pending home sales

The 0.8% February pending home sales rise left a 10.2% 3-month climb that accompanies a 5% rise in the MBA purchase index since October, though mortgage lending temporarily plunged in February alongside a temporary mortgage rate surge. Most real estate gauges will likely show a March hit from deteriorating conditions in February, though the drop in mortgage rates and rebound in lending since February will be supportive in Q2. Analysts assume a -6.6% March drop for existing home sales to a 4.28 M clip, though sales should remain well above the 12-year low pace of 4.00 M in January. New home sales are assumed to fall by -1.6% in March to a 630k clip, capping three consecutive monthly gains, but still leaving a big net climb from the 6-year low rate of 543k last July. Housing starts and permits looks poised for declines of about -4% in March, leaving net gains from 3-year lows in January for starts and in December for permits. Analysts assume a -9.0% Q1 pace of contraction for real residential investment alongside 1.4% growth for GDP, after respective Q4 swings of -25.9% and 2.7%.