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Treasury Market Summary: » 16:30
12/07/22
12/07
16:30
12/07/22
16:30
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Treasury Market Summary:…

Treasury Market Summary: Treasuries surged after Q3 unit labor costs dipped, suggesting the FOMC will not have to be as aggressive with rate hikes in 2023. Technicals and short covering helped extend the slide in yields which were down double digits. Concurrently, the curve inversion deepened and added to worries over coming recession, and that was a drag on Wall Street. The belly of the Treasury curve richened 14 bp to 3.61% on the 5-year. The 2-year fell over 11 bps to 4.25%, while the 10-year was 12 bps lower at 3.41% and the 30-year was off 12.2 bps to 3.42%. The longer maturities fell to the lowest levels since early September. Wall Street ended with the S&P 500 -0.19% loss, a fifth straight session in the red. The NASDAQ was -0.51% lower, failing to get any mileage from the drop in yields. The Dow was unchanged. The DXY dollar index closed at 105.155, slipping from an overnight high of 105.822 given the impact on Fed policy expectations after the productivity and unit labor cost report. The Bank of Canada hiked rates 50 bps to 4.25% as expected, but accompanied the move with a somewhat dovish statement.

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U.S. consumer credit rose $27.1 B to $4.73 tln in October » 15:30
12/07/22
12/07
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U.S. consumer credit rose…

U.S. consumer credit rose $27.1 B to $4.73 tln in October following increases of $25.8 (was $25.0) B to $4.70 tln in September and $30.3 (was $30.2) B to $4.68 tln in August. Both components increased. Credit card use picked up as revolving credit climbed $10.1 B to $1.2 tln after the $7.9 (was $8.3) B gain to $1.16 tln previously. Nonrevolving credit jumped another $17.0 B to $3.6 tln after September's $17.9 (was $16.7) B surge to $3.5 tln.

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October consumer credit up $27.0B vs. last month, consensus $27.3B  15:03
12/07/22
12/07
15:03
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Fed forecast revisions » 12:25
12/07/22
12/07
12:25
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Fed forecast revisions to…

Fed forecast revisions to be released on December 14 with the FOMC statement will show small upward revisions for GDP growth and the PCE chain price gains in 2022, but downward bumps in the jobless rate estimates, followed by likely small trimmings for the 2023 estimates for GDP, chain prices, and the jobless rate. For GDP, analysts expect boosts of 0.1%-0.2% for all of the 2022 range and central tendency estimates. For the headline and core chain price indexes analysts should see 2022 boosts of about 0.2%-0.3% for all but the high-end estimates. For the funds rate, analysts expect the 2022 estimates to converge on the 4.375% December policy rate from the meeting, followed by the same rate path in 2023-25 as shown in September, though the risk is for higher estimates. Analysts assume the same median Fed funds rates of 4.4% in 2022, 4.6% in 2023, and 3.9% in 2024, with a boost in the high-end of the 2023 range above the 5% mark. page for a table of assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts.

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U.S. focus shifts to Friday's reports on inflation » 10:55
12/07/22
12/07
10:55
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U.S. focus shifts to…

U.S. focus shifts to Friday's reports on inflation with PPI and the price metrics in the consumer sentiment release. Expectations for further moderation on the data are supportive for Treasuries. Analysts're forecasting gains of 0.2% on the headline PPI and 0.3% on the core, versus prior prints of 0.2% and unchanged, respectively. Results in line with our forecasts would see y/y rates decelerate to 7.1% from 8.0% for the headline and 6.0% from 6.7% for the ex-food and energy index. The final numbers from the November consumer sentiment report showed the 1-year inflation gauge slowing to a 4.9% rate from 5.0%, though the 5-10 year rate edged up to a 3.0% pace from 2.9% in October. Treasury yields have fallen to their richest levels of the session, with rates on longer dated maturities at the lowest levels since early/mid September.

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Week of 12/2 distillate inventories up 6.2M barrels  10:32
12/07/22
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Week of 12/2 gasoline inventories up 5.3M barrels  10:32
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Week of 12/2 crude oil inventories down 5.2M barrels  10:32
12/07/22
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Treasury Action: the rally is extending » 10:05
12/07/22
12/07
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Treasury Action: the…

Treasury Action: the rally is extending as the market prices in a less aggressive Fed outlook. And short covering and technical buying is accentuating the move down in rates. The 2-year yield has fallen 8.3 bps to 4.283%, with the 10- and 30-year yields over 7 bps lower at 3.464% and 3.470%, respectively. For the latter two maturities, these are the lowest rates since early September. Meanwhile, the massively inverted curve is signaling either recession and/or beliefs inflation will not be so problematic down the road. Concurrently, implied Fed funds futures are easing fractionally and continue to show a 4.93% terminal rate in May and falling to 4.456% in December, suggesting the FOMC will be less hawkish next year as growth risks outweigh inflation concerns.

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Market Action: Treasury yields dove » 09:00
12/07/22
12/07
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Market Action: Treasury…

Market Action: Treasury yields dove on the slowing in unit labor costs along side the upward revision in the Q3 productivity report. The easing in cost pressures suggests the FOMC may not have to tighten as much as otherwise could be the case. The 2-year rate is down 5.4 bps to 4.312% and the 10-year is 3.3 bps lower at 3.49%. The curve is holding in the -82 bp area where it was yesterday and is the most inverted since 1981. Wall Street futures are also paring losses with the NASDAQ -0.68% lower, with the S&P 500 off -0.38% and the Dow down -0.18%. The outlook for a less aggressive FOMC knocked the DXY dollar index lower to 105.085 from an overnight peak of 105.822.

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