Morgan Stanley raises U.S. auto sales forecasts through 2021. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas raised his U.S. seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, forecast for automakers by an average of 850,000 units from 2018 through 2021, which represents slightly more than a 5% increase from his prior forecast. However, his average U.S. SAAR forecast is still well below last year's 17.3M units and 8% under the cyclical high of 17.6M units in 2016. Jonas points to U.S. tax reform and "relatively stable" recent trends in auto sales and credit as reasons for the hike, noting that while infrastructure action from the federal government could be a material positive, it is not explicitly in his new forecast. Adding that the higher view has a net positive impact on estimates and price targets for exposed auto Original Equipment Manufacturers, or OEMs, and suppliers, Jonas raised his price targets on General Motors (GM), Asbury Automotive (ABG), AutoNation (AN), Group 1 Automotive (GPI), Lithia Motors (LAD), Penske Automotive (PAH), Sonic Automotive (SAH) and Ford (F). He also double upgraded Ford, to Overweight from Underweight, this morning.
