On The Fly: Weekly technical notes for S&P 500

The S&P 500 (SPX) looks set to end the week up fractionally, but on a longer-term basis this has meant price is only reconnecting with the downtrend resistance line that has formed since late February. For the downtrend to be broken would require a move and a close soon above the 2365 area. The 2330 area remains as support that needs to hold, even if price merely bases near it. A sharp move below 2330 would almost certainly mean the index was on the way to test at 2300. There are both substantial geopolitical risks and earnings ahead, which will be major catalysts for price action. In the past week, sector breadth was relatively weak. In descending order of gains, the best-performers were Consumer Cyclicals (XLY), Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), and Materials (XLB). The weakest sector was Energy (XLE).