Before the Move: Watch Biogen ahead of Alzheimer's data presentation

Biogen will be presenting data from its Alzheimer's disease clinical development portfolio at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Chicago, which will take place between July 22 and 26. Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges believes data from BAN2401 could drive Biogen's shares $20 down if the company presents a marginal result or $40 up on very positive data. ALZHEIMER'S DATA AT AAIC: Biogen has announced it will present data from its Alzheimer's disease clinical development portfolio at the upcoming Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Chicago. Data being presented are part of Biogen's research programs targeting several of the identified causes of Alzheimer's disease, focusing on early-stage disease. Biogen presentations will include a new analysis from the Phase 1b study of aducanumab, an investigational anti-amyloid beta antibody therapy for mild cognitive impairment and mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. Aducanumab is currently being evaluated in two global Phase 3 studies, ENGAGE and EMERGE, which are designed to evaluate its safety and efficacy in slowing cognitive and functional impairment. In addition, Biogen's collaborator Eisai (ESALY) will present topline Phase 2 clinical study results of BAN2401, an anti-amyloid beta protofibril antibody, and data on elenbecestat, a BACE inhibitor. $40 UP, $20 DOWN: In a research note ahead of AACI, Leerink's Porges told investors that Biogen's stock faces "tremendous volatility" around the presentation of BAN2401 data. The analyst's scenario analysis suggests that a marginal result could see Biogen's stock fall to the $334 range, while very positive data could offer upside to about $393. Based on his analysis, the analyst believes that the two most important things to see next week are a sizeable effect on the ADCOMS - Alzheimer's Disease Composite Score - endpoint in the highest dose at 18 months and strong trends toward benefit, perhaps reaching statistical significance, on traditional cognitive measures that are sub-components of the combined ADCOMS endpoint. In his research, Porges found a substantial gap between investors' and physicians' thresholds for a meaningful positive effect in reducing cognitive decline. Investors have suggested that a 20% reduction in the rate of decline would be positive whereas even "amyloid-ologists" in the specialist community suggested that they would need to see higher degrees of benefit to be impressed, he contended. Nonetheless, the analyst pointed out that it seems highly unlikely that the phase 2 BAN2401 study would suffice for regulatory approval without a phase 3 trial, even if cognitive endpoints are met with high significance. It seems more likely to him that, if the data next week are encouraging, Biogen and Eisai will begin planning a phase 3 pivotal study over the next 12 months to maintain BAN2401 as a back-up option to aducanumab ahead of the 2020 readout. Porges reiterated a Market Perform rating and $325 price target on Biogen shares. Meanwhile, his peer at Morgan Stanley told investors that he remains constructive on Biogen into full BAN2401 data. Analyst Matthew Harrison believes an ADCOMS response above investors' expected level of 20% is likely and could drive Biogen's shares up as much as 20%. Harrison reiterated an Overweight rating and $366 price target on Biogen shares. PRICE ACTION: In afternoon trading, shares of Biogen are fractionally down to $358.50. "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.