2018-12-07 14:39:49 | On The Fly: Weekly technical notes for S&P 500The S&P 500 (SPX) is set to end the week sharply lower, with price last at 2634.58. The 2700 level has been violated as a support so many times that it has become overhead resistance. For the coming week, 2600-2550 looks to be the potential support band to be tested next. Price swings intraday have been very large, lending a further sense of price instability. One thing to note is that these swings are part of a trading range that has been in the process of establishing since early October. The high of that range is at 2800 and the low is at 2600. A break below the low of the range could therefore be an indication of another leg down to come. Equally, a rally back up to and through 2800 would be bullish. This trading range is most easily seen on a 1-year daily chart, closing price basis. Further indications of troubles in the index are seen in the broader mutual fund and ETF flows. According to ICI, there was on the week ending November 28 over -$19B of outflows from long-term mutual funds. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) yesterday saw well north of -$3B in outflows. Against that kind of negative flow, prices will have a difficult time climbing and price swings are likely to continue to be extreme. |
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