Cantor sees over 66% chance of Constellation bidding for Canopy Growth

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic is surprised it has taken this long for Constellation Brands (STZ) to appoint a new CEO at Canopy Growth (CGC) following the exit of Bruce Linton. Pundits trying to read the tea leaves could make arguments both pro and con regarding whether the probability of a bid for the entire company by Constellation has increased or not, Zuanic tells investors in a research note. For his part, the analyst thinks the probability of Constellation trying to acquire Canopy has increased. However, he admits it is not an easy strategic decision for Constellation given its balance sheet, likely mid- to high-teens earnings dilution from a deal for the 65% of Canopy it does not own, and likely near-term hit to its own share price. Nonetheless, Zuanic assigns a more than two-thirds probability to Constellation putting in a bid for all of the Canopy Growth equity in the near term. On the argument of an improving outlook for the cannabis industry, Constellation could justify a deal, contends the analyst, who has a Neutral rating on Canopy Growth with a C$18.90 price target.