BioXcel soars after SunTrust more than sextuples price target to $150

Shares of BioXcel Therapeutics are soaring after SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Robyn Karnauskas more than sextupled her price target on the shares to $150 from $24. The stock in premarket trading is up 74%, or $17.60, to $41.45. The rarely seen target quintuple came after the analyst did greater due diligence and added sales for opioid withdrawal, adjusted the company's dementia/schizophrenia/bipolar sales to more accurately reflect the market opportunity, and adjusted its operating expenses to more accurately reflect sales synergies and lower R&D costs. With two pivotal trials and two Phase 2 trials this year, "investors are missing how quickly these datasets will come and also how quickly the company can complete additional Phase 3 trials," Karnauskas tells investors in a research note. She believes the opioid withdrawal market represents a meaningful opportunity with 18% of 2M patients seeking treatment. The analyst models $1B in unadjusted peak sales with a 50% probability for BXCL501. Further, Karnauskas believes BioXcel's pivotal Phase 3 trials in schizophrenia/bipolar will be successful and launch in the second half of 2021. She models $1.5B in peak sales for dementia with 30% market penetration. In addition, every additional 10% market penetration in schizophrenia/bipolar would add $17 to her discounted cash flow model and every additional 10% market penetration in dementia would add $24