On The Fly: Weekly technical notes for S&P 500

The day caps a week of declines that in many cases saw sectors and sub-sectors at new lows or pushed back to test support near the breakouts of October/November of last year. Volumes were astonishingly large in what was a probable forced liquidation event not unlike December 2018. The usual weekly guesses as to precise levels don't have a great deal of weight in this kind of environment. Stabilization, rather than rallies or declines, becomes the hope or expectation. At the lows of the day, the index ticked its long term uptrend channel. That channel would still be intact all the way down to 2750. Such a decline would remove the China trade deal premium and possibly create conditions for a new run. On the upside, 3000 becomes the big number bulls will target if they can get a catalyst. Energy (XLE, XOP) was the biggest real loser of the week, plumbing new life lows in the case of the XOP. Low crude prices are putting companies in that sector and sub-sector under enormous strain. Technology names finally saw the correction many analysts had called for. Next week we will find out if those declines have created buying opportunities.