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Fly News Breaks for March 2, 2020
Mar 2, 2020 | 06:31 EDT
Cowen analyst Ken Cacciatore initiated coverage of Amarin with an Outperform rating and $23 price target. The shares closed Friday at $14.67. Vascepa's supplemental new drug application was approved in December 2019 for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients with high triglycerides on top of statins, roughly quadrupling the number of patients who could benefit from it, Cacciatore tells investors in a research note. The only near-term risk for Amarin is the ongoing generic litigation, but legal consultants believe that Vascepa's patents are defensible, adds the analyst. Cacciatore believes the shares around $15 assume only a 15% penetration of the target market, or $3B in U.S. Vascepa revenues by 2028. "We clearly believe the current trading level is meaningfully discounting the potential of this product," says the analyst. His $23 target assumes 25% penetration into the recently expanded patient population in the U.S. by 2028, or roughly $5B in Vascepa sales that year. Further, moving past the patent litigation will be the "final gating item before serious acquisition conversations can begin," argues Cacciatore.
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