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Fly News Breaks for October 16, 2019
Oct 16, 2019 | 08:29 EDT
Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison noted that the USPTO's Patent Trial and Appeal Board will hold an oral hearing on November 13 for an IPR challenge of the only patent that protects Biogen's (BIIB) Tecfidera beyond 2020, after which he believes it will be hard for Biogen to settle out of this case. With that view in mind, he can see a scenario where Biogen reaches a settlement with both Mylan (MYL) and Sawai with a launch date before 2024, in which case he would foresee 1%-5% downside for Biogen shares. In a scenario where Biogen settles with launch date of 2024 or later, Harrison could see 5%-15% upside for Biogen shares. In a scenario where the oral hearing passes without a settlement, the analyst could see 1%-10% downside for Biogen shares. His base case expectation is that Biogen is unlikely to settle the IPR before the hearing, noted Harrison, who keeps an Underweight rating and $212 price target on Biogen shares.
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