Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin upgraded BlackLine (BL) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $78, up from $60. The analyst sees "strong momentum" for the company entering 2020 with several potential upside levers, including SAP Solex deal momentum, mix shift to strategic automation products, and direct sales investments that are starting to bear fruit. Bracelin sees a favorable risk/reward with downside risk in the shares "tempered" by BlackLine's strategic relationship with SAP (SAP). BlackLine can see further multiple expansion as visibility continues to improve, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
The company states: "SAP raises its full-year 2021 outlook reflecting the strong new cloud business performance which is expected to reaccelerate cloud revenue growth. The Company continues to expect a software licenses revenue decline for the full year as more customers turn to the "RISE with SAP" subscription offering for their mission-critical core processes. This outlook also continues to assume the COVID-19 crisis will begin to recede as vaccine programs roll out globally, leading to a gradually improving global demand environment in the second half of 2021. SAP now expects: EUR 9.2 - 9.5 billion non-IFRS cloud revenue at constant currencies (2020: EUR 8.09 billion), up 14% to 18% at constant currencies. The previous range was EUR 9.1 - 9.5 billion at constant currencies. EUR 23.4 - 23.8 billion non-IFRS cloud and software revenue at constant currencies (2020: EUR 23.23 billion), up 1% to 2% at constant currencies. The previous range was EUR 23.3 - 23.8 billion at constant currencies. 7.8 - 8.2 billion non-IFRS operating profit at constant currencies (2020: EUR 8.28 billion), down 1% to 6% at constant currencies. The share of more predictable revenue (defined as the total of cloud revenue and software support revenue) to reach approximately 75% (2020: 72%)."