"Game On" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories powering up or beating down video game stocks.
NEW RELEASES: This week's most notable release is Nintendo's (NTDOY) party game "Super Mario Party Jamboree," which launches October 17 exclusively for Nintendo Switch systems. Also out this week is Ubisoft (UBSFY) rhythm game "Just Dance 2025 Edition," which releases October 15 for Switch, PlayStation 5 (SONY), and Xbox Series X/S (MSFT).
CIRCANA AUGUST DATA: Last week, Circana analyst Mat Piscatella said that projected U.S. total spending on video game hardware, content and accessories fell 7% during August 2024 versus a year ago, to $4.1B. A 5% increase in Mobile content spending was offset by declines across other areas. 2024 year-to-date spending is now 1% higher than a year ago, at $36.3B. 4% growth in video game content spending (driven by Mobile), and an 8% increase in accessories has thus far offset a 28% drop in video game hardware spending. Electronic Arts' (EA) "Madden NFL 25" was the best-selling video game of August 2024 - the 25th consecutive year in which a new Madden NFL franchise release was the best-selling title in its release month. This streak began with the release of Madden NFL 2001 in August of 2000. "EA Sports College Football 25" remained the best-selling title of 2024 year-to-date after placing 2nd in August. Other new releases appearing among August's top 20 best-sellers included Ubisoft's "Star Wars: Outlaws" (3rd overall), Square Enix's (SQNXF) "Visions of Mana" (10th) and Bandai Namco's (NCBDY) "Gundam Breaker 4" (11th).
On the hardware side, August video game hardware spending dropped 36% when compared to a year ago, to $208M. All current generation console hardware platforms declined by at least 34% when compared to a year ago, with Switch showing the sharpest year-on-year fall at 41%. PlayStation 5 again led the month's hardware market in unit and dollar sales, with Xbox Series ranking 2nd across both measures.
EUROPE SEPTEMBER SALES: 17.6M PC and console video games were purchased across Europe in September, with sales up over 20% year-over-year, Gamesindustry.biz's Christopher Dring reported, citing data from GSD. Electronic Arts' "EA Sports FC 25" claimed first place, with Ubisoft's "The Crew 2" coming in second. Other top sellers for the month included Pullup's "Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2," Sony's "Astro Bot," Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) "Hogwarts Legacy," Take-Two's (TTWO) "NBA 2K25" and "Grand Theft Auto V," and Nintendo's "The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom." On the hardware side, console sales fell 18% year-over-year, with Sony's PlayStation 5 remaining in first place, Nintendo Switch in second, and Xbox Series X/S in third, according to GSD.
STIFEL SEES HIGHER EA GUIDANCE: On Monday, Stifel maintained a Buy rating and $167 price target on Electronic Arts while also boosting its FY26 EPS view by 41c to $8.41. Getting past the "EA Sports FC 25" launch, the management will likely have the necessary visibility and confidence to raise its guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. EA's changes to the outlook are also expected to reflect continued strength for "College Football 25" against any cannibalization for "Madden NFL 25," the firm added.
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