Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report results on its fourth fiscal quarter on Wednesday, January 27, with a conference call scheduled for 6:30 pm EDT. What to watch for:
1. POSITIVE RESULTS 'CLEARLY' PRICED IN: Ahead of Tesla's quarterly results, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin told investors he believes positive financial results are "clearly" priced into the stock. Key items for 2021 are ramping sales into India and details on the upcoming MiniCar, Irwin added. With a "stretched current valuation," the analyst sees a better investment opportunity in emerging competition. He has a Neutral rating and a price target of $150 on the shares.
2. 'YEARS FASTER' THAN COMPETITORS: Last week, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch raised the firm's price target on Tesla to Street-high $1,036 from $486 to reflect the assumption that Tesla's autonomous vehicle commercialization can come "years faster than competitors," plus equity market multiple appreciation. While he has "misgivings" about Tesla not incorporating LiDAR into its vehicles yet, Rusch believes the learning cycles enabled by having over 1M vehicles on the road is "an extraordinary advantage" that can help Tesla's shadow mode data collection to reach the threshold of 6B test miles being driven that he thinks is necessary to validate L4+L5 ADAS. The analyst has an Outperform rating on the shares.
3. PRODUCTION, DELIVERIES: Earlier this month, Tesla said that it delivered 180,570 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter and produced 179,757 vehicles total. The carmaker also said it delivered 499,550 in 2020 versus its recent guidance of 500,000 vehicles, and produced 509,737 total. In the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 18,920 and produced 16,670 Model S/X vehicles, and delivered 161,650 and produced 163,660 Model 3/Y vehicles. Additionally, the company announced that it delivered 57,039 and produced 54,850 Model S/X vehicles in 2020, and delivered 442,511 and produced 454,932 Model 3/Y vehicles this year.
4. SELL 20M VEHICLES PER YEAR IN 10 YEARS: In an interview with Business Insider, when asked about how many cars he wants to sell in 10 years, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said, "There are about 2 billion cars and trucks active in the world, and that number is increasing. Internally we think, we would like to be changing 1% of the fleet in the global fleet per year. To really make a dent, we have got to be past the decimal point. So that would be about 20 million vehicles a year." On the stock market, Musk added, "The public markets are crazy. So, do I think there's a good chance that Tesla's worth this in the future? Yes, possibly more. But it really depends on the probability that people think we will actually get to 20 million vehicles a year. And then also solar and stationary battery storage are a very important part of Tesla's future."
Tesla
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