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VSLR

Vivint Solar

$5.10

0.75 (17.24%)

, CAFD

8point3 Energy

$13.70

0.2 (1.48%)

11:29
06/20/17
06/20
11:29
06/20/17
11:29

Before the Move: Goldman sees Vivint as top target when M&A heats up

As the potential for increased mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. solar space ramps up, Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee views Vivint Solar (VSLR) as a main target for possible deals citing restructuring potential in the residential solar business. "M&A RIPENING": Lee said the transaction pipeline in the U.S. solar sector appears to be picking up, a trend he views as likely to continue, and estimated that approximately $3B of announced solar deals could be on track to close in the second half of 2017. The emergence of contracted cash-flow based models, the restructuring of business models, low-cost financing and declines in solar equity prices are increasing the likelihood of mergers and acquisitions, the analyst wrote. RANK 1: Based on the potential for increased M&A, Lee upgraded Vivint to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target for the shares to $6 from $3.50. Lee assigned Vivint Goldman's highest M&A rank of 1, representing a 30% to 50% probability of a deal, up from 3, as he sees increased restructuring potential in the residential solar business. He added the company's renewed financing breadth, concentrated equity ownership and aggressive shift to cash/loan volumes strengthens its turn-around potential and position as an M&A target. Lee said management has previously said it is open to a sale and Goldman's hypothetical sensitivity analysis suggests potential mid-teens returns for an acquirer if mix shift continues. OTHER RANK INCREASES: Lee also assigned a rank of 1 to 8point3 Energy (CAFD), up from 4, saying while the firm has not viewed the company as an attractive acquisition candidate due to high leverage and its dual-parent ownership structure, an announcement by First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) to explore strategic alternatives could result in a sale of the company. He added risk-reward for potential buyers is attractive at current equity prices. Lee kept a Buy rating on the name and raised his price target to $16 to $15. In addition, he notes Sunrun (RUN) is trading below tangible book value following underperformance but Goldman's hypothetical sensitivity analysis suggests potential returns above 15% for an acquirer if mix shift persists. Lee ranks the company at a 2, up from a 3, reiterates a Buy rating and raises his price target to $10 from $9. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Vivint rose 19% to $5.18, 8point3 Energy increased 9% to $13.82, and Sunrun rose 8.3% to $6.34. "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.

VSLR

Vivint Solar

$5.10

0.75 (17.24%)

CAFD

8point3 Energy

$13.70

0.2 (1.48%)

FSLR

First Solar

$36.35

0.52 (1.45%)

SPWR

SunPower

$7.79

0.22 (2.91%)

RUN

Sunrun

$5.85

0.11 (1.92%)

  • 20

    Jun

  • 20

    Jun

  • 22

    Jun

  • 29

    Jun

VSLR Vivint Solar
$5.10

0.75 (17.24%)

06/20/17
GSCO
06/20/17
UPGRADE
Target $6
GSCO
Buy
Vivint Solar upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee upgraded Vivint Solar to Buy citing the potential for increased mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. solar sector. The analyst raised his price target for the shares to $6 from $3.50. Lee assigned Vivint Goldman's highest M&A rank of 1 and sees increased restructuring potential in the residential solar business. The analyst also raised his price targets for Buy-rated Sunrun (SUN) to $10 and Buy-rated 8point3 Energy (CAFD) to $16.
03/17/17
JMPS
03/17/17
NO CHANGE
JMPS
Vivint Solar 'making solid progress,' says JMP Securities
After Vivint Solar reported a lower than expected EPS loss but missed slightly on the top line, JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha says that the company "is making solid progress" with its rebuilding process. The analyst says that the company has sufficient financing to continue its business for at least another two quarters. He thinks that the stock could be worth $11 per share, but he says that the company's business environment is "very unstable," and he keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
11/10/16
JMPS
11/10/16
DOWNGRADE
JMPS
Market Perform
Vivint Solar downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities
10/07/16
10/07/16
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Gap (GPS) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank with analyst Paul Trussell saying the company's near-to medium-term setup is more favorable amid easing compares over the next few months and an improved apparel backdrop. 2. DuPont Fabros (DFT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel with analyst Matthew Heinz saying the company's current valuation reflects an expectation for weaker Q3 leasing activity. 3. Ralph Lauren (RL) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman with analyst Lindsay Drucker Mann saying CEO Stefan Larsson's turnaround is firmly in place. 4. Restoration Hardware (RH) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham with the firm's analyst believing $1.60-$1.80 fiscal 2016 earnings are achievable, reducing the risk of further downward earnings revisions. 5. Vivint Solar (VSLR) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman with analyst Brian Lee saying the company is "moving on the path toward recovery." This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
CAFD 8point3 Energy
$13.70

0.2 (1.48%)

04/11/17
FBRC
04/11/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $13
FBRC
Market Perform
8point3 Energy downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at FBR Capital
FBR Capital analyst Carter Driscoll downgraded 8point3 Energy 8point3 Energy citing sponsorship uncertainties after First Solar (FSLR) pursuing strategic alternatives for its interest. The analyst lowered his price target for the shares to $13 from $15.
06/14/17
GUGG
06/14/17
DOWNGRADE
GUGG
Neutral
8point3 Energy downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
06/14/17
GUGG
06/14/17
DOWNGRADE
GUGG
Neutral
8point3 Energy downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
Guggenheim downgraded 8point3 Energy to Neutral citing valuation.
FSLR First Solar
$36.35

0.52 (1.45%)

05/04/17
BOFA
05/04/17
UPGRADE
Target $45
BOFA
Buy
First Solar upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill upgraded First Solar to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $45 from $42 following the better than expected Q1 report and raised guidance . Analyst Krish Sankar said First Solar's execution has improved and said the low cost Series 6 product could lead to better margins starting in Q2 2018. Sankar also told investors First Solar's valuation is attractive and the balance sheet has strengthened.
05/18/17
BARD
05/18/17
DOWNGRADE
BARD
Neutral
First Solar downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird
05/24/17
JMPS
05/24/17
UPGRADE
JMPS
Outperform
First Solar upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities
05/04/17
05/04/17
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill with analyst Krish Sankar saying First Solar's execution has improved and said the low cost Series 6 product could lead to better margins starting in the second quarter of 2018. Sankar also told investors First Solar's valuation is attractive and the balance sheet has strengthened. 2. Fogo De Chao (FOGO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord with analyst Lynne Collier saying she sees an improved outlook for the overall industry in the next 12-24 months and she has increased confidence in the company's ability to drive market share gains. Collier raised her price target to $20 from $16 on Fogo de Chao shares. 3. Carlyle Group (CG) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette with analyst Robert Lee citing the "strong" first quarter results and accrued carry. 4. Regions Financial (RF) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill with analyst Erika Najarian saying the market is undervaluing a "significant capital return story" following the year-to-date underperformance relative to peers. The analyst sees upside to the dividend and thinks Regions can return 20% of its market capitalization over the next two years. Her price target of $17 implies 20% upside from current levels. 5. Bunge (BG) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan with analyst Ann Duignan citing a balanced risk/reward following the 11% post-earnings selloff. The analyst keeps a $70 price target for the shares. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
SPWR SunPower
$7.79

0.22 (2.91%)

04/06/17
BARD
04/06/17
NO CHANGE
Target $16
BARD
Outperform
8point3 Energy price target lowered to $16 from $20 at Baird
Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered his price target on 8point3 Energy (CAFD) to $16 from $20 following Q1 earnings. Despite beating earnings estimates the shares are likely to be under pressure following the decision by First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) to consider strategic alternatives for their respective interests in the company, said Kallo. Bears will believe the company will not be able to support growth without additional dropdowns, but he feels the current operating portfolio should support growth through 2018. Kallo maintained his Outperform rating on 8point3 Energy shares.
04/06/17
JANY
04/06/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $13.5
JANY
Neutral
8point3 Energy downgraded on sponsor uncertainty at Janney Capital
As previously reported, Janney Capital analyst Michael Gaugler downgraded 8point3 Energy to Neutral from Buy, stating that the pipelines and financial strength of its sponsors First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) were a primary reason for his positive take on the stock. With First Solar planning to exit there is no clear plan in place and a strategic review could lead down any path, including both sponsors exiting, said Gaugler, who lowered his fair value estimate on 8point3 Energy to $13.50 from $20.
03/24/17
JPMS
03/24/17
NO CHANGE
Target $38
JPMS
Neutral
JPMorgan cuts solar targets amid industry capacity additions
JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster lowered his estimates for First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) on the belief that it will take longer than expected for industry supply and demand to find balance. The analyst is "skeptical" on the timing of an industry recovery with Chinese-based competitors including Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JinkoSolar (JKS) and JA Solar (JASO) increasing module capacity. Coster lowered his price target for Neutral-rated First Solar to $38 from $41 and for Neutral-rated SunPower to $8 from $9.
04/17/17
AXIO
04/17/17
INITIATION
Target $18
AXIO
Buy
Canadian Solar rises after Axiom starts with a Buy
Shares of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) are higher in early trading after Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson initiated the stock with a Buy rating and an $18 price target, as previously reported by The Fly. Johnson sees Canadian Solar as having a unique level of "sellable, in-the-money," U.S., Chinese, and Japanese solar assets, leaving it positioned similarly to how First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) were in mid 2012 when those two had the same type of unique positioning relative to solar industry peers. From late June 2012 to the end of 2015, shares of First Solar and SunPower advanced 526% and 338%, respectively, far outpacing the gains of their industry peers, said Johnson, who now sees a similar set-up for Canadian Solar. In early trading, Canadian Solar shares have risen 63c, or about 5%, to $13.35.
RUN Sunrun
$5.85

0.11 (1.92%)

03/22/17
UBSW
03/22/17
UPGRADE
Target $6.5
UBSW
Buy
Sunrun upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
UBS analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith upgraded Sunrun to Buy citing accelerating prospects amid policy support in the Northeast. States in the Northeast are "becoming the new home" for the company's growth, Dumoulin-Smith tells investors in a research note. The analyst has a $6.50 price target for the shares.
03/22/17
03/22/17
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. KeyBanc analyst Todd Thomas upgraded Urban Outfitters (URBN) to Overweight from Sector Weight, saying the retailer has a highly differentiated product offering and has made significant investments to capture e-commerce share. 2. Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache upgraded BorgWarner (BWA) to Buy from Hold, saying the prospects for business units focused on Internal Combustion efficiency and emissions are better than he previously thought. The analyst expects penetration of battery electric vehicles will remain "relatively low" through the 2020s. He raised his price target for BorgWarner shares to $51 from $41. The analyst this morning also raised his price target for Buy-rated Delphi (DLPH) to $99 from $88 and Hold-rated Tenneco (TEN) to $78 from $75. 3. UBS analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith upgraded Sunrun (RUN) to Buy from Neutral, citing accelerating prospects amid policy support in the Northeast. 4. Wedbush analyst Henry Coffey upgraded LendingClub (LC) to Neutral from Underperform, saying management has made a very good case in recent meetings on how they will enhance the breadth of the marketplace and grow volumes. 5. Credit Suisse analyst Andre Natal upgraded Petrobras (PBR) to Outperform with an $11 price target saying recent share weakness provides a buying opportunity. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
11/22/16
11/22/16
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Charles Schwab (SCHW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi with analyst William Katz citing the company's leverage to interest rates and its potential earnings power in 2018. 2. DTE Energy (DTE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Merrill Lynch with analyst Brian Chin saying he believes DTE's Gas Storage and Pipeline net income will benefit under a Trump presidency. 3. Cooper-Standard (CPS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman with analyst David Tamberrino saying valuation is not capturing operating improvements, incremental footprint restructuring activities, and significant growth in China. 4. GoDaddy (GDDY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley with analyst Sameet Sinha citing more confidence in the company's growth metrics. 5. Sunrun (RUN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays with analyst Jon Windham saying he sees potential for the company to take market share given the expected scaled-back operations at SolarCity following completion of the merger with Tesla (TSLA). This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

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