The 0.9% Q2 productivity growth clip
The 0.9% Q2 productivity growth clip with a 3.4% pace for output slightly beat estimates, following revisions to both series over the past three years that tracked the annual revisions in the last GDP report, with modest boosts to the Q1 data but big downward bumps in Q3 and Q4. Analysts saw hourly compensation growth of just 1.6% in Q2, following a sharp boost to the Q1 figures and downward Q3-Q4 revisions, as seen in the last set of income data. The mix left unit labor cost growth of 0.6% in Q2 after a boost in Q1 but trimmings in Q3-Q4. For our Q3 forecasts, analysts expect a 2.2% productivity growth rate that beats the 1.7% (was 1.6%) average pace over the 15 years since the start of the last expansion in Q4 of 2001, alongside a 4.3% output rise that beats its 2.2% (was 2.1%) 15-year average, and a 2.1% hours-worked rise that beats the 0.5% 15-year average. Analysts expect Q2 compensation growth of 3.0% that translates to a 0.8% unit labor cost rise, versus comparable respective 15-year average growth rates of 2.7% and 1.1% (was 1.2%).