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CHL

China Mobile

$56.25

-0.04 (-0.07%)

, NPTN

NeoPhotonics

$6.53

0.4292 (7.04%)

10:45
08/24/17
08/24
10:45
08/24/17
10:45

Analysts see China Mobile tender as beneficial for optical names

Yesterday, China Mobile (CHL) announced on its Chinese language website a major coherent transport order of 42K-70K ports. Commenting on the news, Needham analyst Alex Henderson said it may cause "a meaningful change" in the demand trajectory out of China, helping optical names. While his peer at B. Riley acknowledged that the tender could be "a needle-mover," he pointed out that the 10G/100G mix is still unclear. CHANGE IN DEMAND TRAJECTORY: Following the announcement, Needham analyst Alex Henderson told investors that the order announced by China Mobile looks "significant in scale" and material for a broad swath of optical stocks and is likely to be delivered starting in the fourth quarter and into the first half of 2018. Further, the analyst argued that it could cause "a meaningful change" in the demand trajectory out of China, helping optical names including NeoPhotonics (NTPN), Acacia Communications (ACIA), Oclaro (OCLR), Lumentum (LITE), Finisar (FNSR), and Fabrinet (FN). As Huawei and ZTE (ZTCOY) have been drawing down inventory, the impact could be larger than the scale of the order as it pushes companies to rebuild inventory, Henderson added. Nonetheless, the analyst pointed out that it is too early to pen this demand in for the fourth quarter, and could use more proof and clarity of scale and timing. His peer at Stifel voiced a similar opinion as he sees the news as a positive for the optical industry, particularly for investor sentiment. Analyst Patrick Newton believes the China Mobile tender is indicative of a thawing in metro tenders and deployments in China, which should eventually bode positively for those exposed to China, specifically Oclaro, Lumentum, and Finisar. Nonetheless, the analyst told investors that he continues to see a challenging environment in China, but hopes the September quarter will represent a bottom for fundamentals. MORE INFORMATION NEEDED: In a research note of his own, B. Riley analyst Dave Kang noted that while China Mobile has issued a procurement notice for approximately 42,000 ports, there was no information on the mix of 10G/100G, which would be the most relevant information to determine its significance. As such, the analyst believes it is inconclusive to determine the impact on the optical industry at this point. Nonetheless, Kang argued that while it would be a relative non-event if the tender is mostly 10G, it would be meaningful for the industry if it is mostly 100G. Given that Lumentum is the primary supplier of datacom products to Huawei, a primary allocation to 100G ports would be incrementally positive for it, the analyst added. Moreover, Kang believes that if this is mostly a 100G tender, it could be a "needle-mover" for the optical component industry. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of Acacia Communications and NeoPhotonics are up 9% and 7%, respectively. Meanwhile, Oclaro, Lumentum and Finisar have gained 3%, 4% and 1%. Fabrinet is also up a bit over 2%.

CHL

China Mobile

$56.25

-0.04 (-0.07%)

NPTN

NeoPhotonics

$6.53

0.4292 (7.04%)

ACIA

Acacia Communications

$45.06

2.35 (5.50%)

OCLR

Oclaro

$8.74

0.46 (5.56%)

LITE

Lumentum

$56.00

1.65 (3.04%)

FNSR

Finisar

$24.68

0.78 (3.26%)

FN

Fabrinet

$39.32

0.73 (1.89%)

ZTCOY

ZTE Corp.

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CHL China Mobile
$56.25

-0.04 (-0.07%)

08/24/17
STFL
08/24/17
NO CHANGE
STFL
China Mobile tender positive for optical industry, says Stifel
After China Mobile (CHL) released a tender for about 42,200 WDM/OTN device boards and ports, Stifel analyst Patrick Newton says the news are a positive for the optical industry, particularly for investor sentiment. The analyst believes the China Mobile tender is indicative of a thawing in metro tenders and deployments in China, which should eventually bode positively for those exposed to China, specifically Oclaro (OCLR), Lumentum (LITE), and Finisar (FNSR). Nonetheless, Newton continues to see a challenging environment in China, but hopes the September quarter will represent a bottom for fundamentals.
03/23/17
HSBC
03/23/17
DOWNGRADE
HSBC
Hold
China Mobile downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC
07/05/17
MSCO
07/05/17
DOWNGRADE
MSCO
Underweight
China Mobile downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
08/24/17
RILY
08/24/17
NO CHANGE
RILY
Buy
China Mobile tender 'could be needle-mover,' but mix unclear, says B. Riley
B. Riley analyst Dave Kang noted that China Mobile (CHL) has issued a procurement notice for approximately 42,000 ports, but said there was no information on the mix of 10G/100G, which would be the most relevant information to determine its significance. Various industry executives he spoke with said it would be difficult to assess the impact of the tender without knowing the mix of 10G/100G and share allocations between customers. If this tender is mostly for 100G, it "could be a needle-mover for the optical component industry," added Kang, who has a Buy rating on Lumentum (LITE) shares.
NPTN NeoPhotonics
$6.53

0.4292 (7.04%)

05/25/17
RSBL
05/25/17
INITIATION
Target $13
RSBL
Buy
NeoPhotonics initiated with a Buy at Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt analyst Jun Zhang initiated NeoPhotonics with a Buy and a $13 price target due to potential benefits from China Mobile's upcoming Phase 12, improving EML yield rate and gross margin, a new design win of CFP2-LR at Huawei, sustainable growth of Coherent products at Hisilicon, expanding business at InnoLight, and real estate assets in Shenzhen and Tokyo with an estimated value of $400M.
06/29/17
DADA
06/29/17
INITIATION
Target $9
DADA
Neutral
NeoPhotonics initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Mark Kelleher started NeoPhotonics with a Neutral rating and $9 price target.
07/24/17
RAJA
07/24/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $9
RAJA
Outperform
NeoPhotonics downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold downgraded NeoPhotonics to Outperform and maintained its $9 price target to reflect a more cautious stance on the timing of a recovery in China, combined with recent share appreciation.
08/24/17
NEED
08/24/17
NO CHANGE
NEED
China Mobile tender offer looks 'significant' for optical stocks, says Needham
Needham analyst Alex Henderson said the coherent transport ports tender offer announced by China Mobile (CHL) on its Chinese language website looks "significant in scale and material" for optical stocks. He noted that NeoPhotonics (NPTN) gets roughly 60% of revenue from China and is directly exposed to coherent demand, while Acacia (ACIA) gets 50% of revenue from China and is also directly exposed. He noted that Oclaro (OCLR), Lumentum (LITE), Finisar (FNSR) all have China exposure, but are less tied to coherent, while adding that "this order has no bearing" on Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI).
ACIA Acacia Communications
$45.06

2.35 (5.50%)

06/22/17
DADA
06/22/17
INITIATION
Target $61
DADA
Buy
Acacia Communications initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Mark Kelleher initiated Acacia Communications with a Buy and a $61 price target telling investors its new CFP-ACO product positions the company for 2018 growth.
07/17/17
NEED
07/17/17
NO CHANGE
Target $50
NEED
Buy
Acacia Communications price target lowered to $50 from $65 at Needham
Needham analyst Alex Henderson lowered his price target for Acacia Communications to $50 from $65 to reflect the combined impact of the Q2 miss and estimate cuts, as well as the hit to investor confidence in the stock and likely in management. The analyst reiterates a Buy rating on the shares.
05/22/17
RSBL
05/22/17
NO CHANGE
RSBL
China Telecom has begun work on Metro upgrade plan, says Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt Securities said China Telecom (CHA) has begun work on its Metro upgrade plan and the firm believes it will release tenders for both provincial and Metro in the timeframe of September to October. Companies in the optical equipment space that could benefit from China's upgrade cycle include Oclaro (OCRL), Finisar (FNSR), Lumentum (LITE), NeoPhotonics (NPTN), Acacia Communications (ACIA) and Viavi (VIAV).
OCLR Oclaro
$8.74

0.46 (5.56%)

08/03/17
JEFF
08/03/17
NO CHANGE
Target $12.5
JEFF
Buy
Oclaro results a relief after MACOM commentary, says Jefferies
Jefferies analyst James Kisner views Oclaro's (OCLR) Q4 results as "solid" and continues to believe the company will surprise investors to the upside. The quarter is likely a relief after negative China commentary yesterday from MACOM (MTSI), Kisner tells investors in a research note. He raised his price target for the shares to $12.50 from $12 and keeps a Buy rating on the name.
08/03/17
STFL
08/03/17
NO CHANGE
STFL
Oclaro reported impressive Q4 results, says Stifel
Stifel analyst Patrick Newton says that Oclaro reported impressive Q4 results, with profitability that "stands out." The analyst adds that the company's CFP2-ACO and QSFP28 products have "positive momentum." He keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
LITE Lumentum
$56.00

1.65 (3.04%)

08/10/17
PIPR
08/10/17
NO CHANGE
Target $68
PIPR
Overweight
Lumentum price target raised to $68 from $58 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Troy Jensen raised his price target for Lumentum (LITE) to $68 saying a surge in orders for 3D Sensing VCSELs offset weaker than expected core optics in the June quarter. Jensen believes, based on conversations with industry contacts, that Lumentum captured 75%-100% of initial shipments of both the high and low-power VCSEL into Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 8. The 3D sensing market is a "significant earnings enhancement opportunity" for Lumentum, Jensen writes in a post-earnings research note. He reiterates an Overweight rating on the shares.
FNSR Finisar
$24.68

0.78 (3.26%)

06/16/17
STFL
06/16/17
NO CHANGE
STFL
Finisar fundamentals likely to bottom next month, says Stifel
After Finisar reported lower than expected Q4 revenue and provided weaker than expected Q1 guidance, Stifel analyst Patrick Newton blamed several factors for the weakness, including the company's China business and 10G softness. However, the analyst says that the stock reflects the China weakness while the company's fundamentals will probably bottom next month. He keeps a $33 price target and a Buy rating on the shares.
06/29/17
DADA
06/29/17
INITIATION
Target $40
DADA
Buy
Finisar initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Mark Kelleher started Finisar with a Buy rating and $40 price target.
FN Fabrinet
$39.32

0.73 (1.89%)

08/23/17
JPMS
08/23/17
NO CHANGE
Target $54
JPMS
Overweight
Fabrinet weak Q1 guidance 'largely anticipated,' says JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster said a temporary slowdown in Chinese telco demand is making for a slow start to FY18 for Fabrinet, leading to the company's "weak" Q1 guidance, though he contends that was "largely anticipated" in the market. The analyst, who sees the stock to "trade sideways" until more positive demand data points are apparent from Fabrintet customers, trimmed his price target on the stock to $54 from $57 but keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
08/22/17
NEED
08/22/17
NO CHANGE
NEED
Fabrinet outlook remains positive, says Needham
Needham analyst Alex Henderson says that Fabrinet reported "solid" results but provided "soft" guidance. The analyst blames the soft guidance on product transitions at two of its customers, "a lull in ROADM demand, and a product transition in industrial laser." He expects all of these headwinds to be temporary and keeps a $60 price target and a Strong Buy rating on the stock.
08/22/17
PIPR
08/22/17
NO CHANGE
Target $51
PIPR
Overweight
Fabrinet guide down anticipated, creates buying opportunity, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Troy Jensen said Fabrinet's below consensus guidance for the September quarter was highly anticipated given weakness previously reported by its customers and would argue that the company's forecast being down roughly 3% sequentially is significantly better than most in the optical space. The analyst, who expects 2018 to be the year Fabrinet experiences outsized growth in datacom sales, keeps an Overweight rating on the shares and would be a buyer on post-earnings weakness. Jensen lowered his price target on Fabrinet shares to $51 from $55.
ZTCOY ZTE Corp.

03/08/17
CHLM
03/08/17
NO CHANGE
CHLM
Buy
ZTE settlement removes overhang on Oclaro shares, says Craig-Hallum
Craig-Hallum analyst Richard Shannon notes that Oclaro (OCLR) top customer ZTE (ZTCOY) has settled with the U.S. and has agreed to a $1.2B fine. The analyst believes this eliminates the overhang on Oclaro's stock that has been there for the past year. The remaining issue with most investors is potential China inventory, which he believes is overblown. Shannon reiterates a Buy rating on Oclaro's shares.
03/15/17
CHLM
03/15/17
NO CHANGE
CHLM
Buy
Oclaro a 'great buying opportunity,' says Craig-Hallum
Craig-Hallum analyst Richard Shannon believes Oclaro (OCLR) is a "great buying opportunity" at current prices. The analyst says concerns about China inventory are unfounded as there does not appear to be any ZTE (ZTCOY)-related issues, while NeoPhotonics (NPTN) dynamics are distinctly different than Oclaro's. Shannon notes that the latter's stock is "easily the cheapest" in the optical universe, suggesting very low downside risk and making it his best idea in the space. He reiterates a Buy rating on Oclaro's shares.

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Hot Stocks
FCC settles New York City E-rate investigation with Verizon »

The Federal…

03/08/13
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  • 19

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  • 01

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SCSS

Select Comfort

$30.38

-0.17 (-0.56%)

17:20
10/17/17
10/17
17:20
10/17/17
17:20
Hot Stocks
Breaking Hot Stocks news story on Select Comfort »

Select Comfort expects to…

03/08/13
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  • 17

    Oct

IBM

IBM

$146.54

-0.29 (-0.20%)

17:17
10/17/17
10/17
17:17
10/17/17
17:17
Hot Stocks
IBM: Global business services signings up for 3rd consecutive quarter »

Says cognitive solutions…

03/08/13
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  • 17

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