FOMC forecast revisions
FOMC forecast revisions will be released Wednesday with the FOMC statement. All eyes will be on the dot plot, where analysts expected downward revisions of 25 bps in the high-end dot-plot estimates across the forecast horizon, though median Fed estimates should remain close to current projections suggesting one more tightening this year in December. Analysts also expect most policymakers will continue to forecast three tightenings next year. Along with the dot plot, the forecasts should reveal big boosts in the 2017 GDP and PCE chain price estimates, alongside a small trimming in the high-end 2017 forecasts for the jobless rate and the PCE core price figures. For future years, analysts may see small 2018 GDP increases as well, as hurricane rebuilding effects are factored in. At the June 13-14 meeting, the FOMC provided 2017 central tendencies of 2.1%-2.2% for GDP and 1.6%-1.7% for chain prices, and analysts would expect both ranges to be lifted by 0.2% that would leave the figures closer to our current point-estimates of 2.5% and 1.9%. page for a table of our assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts.