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NKE

Nike

$53.24

0.01 (0.02%)

, AMZN

Amazon.com

$939.79

-15.31 (-1.60%)

10:45
09/26/17
09/26
10:45
09/26/17
10:45

On The Fly: What to watch in Nike's earnings report

Nike (NKE) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter after the market close on Tuesday, September 26, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for: 1. REVENUE CONSENSUS DROPS: Along with its last report, Nike guided for flat Q1 reported revenue growth. At the time, analysts were expecting the sneaker giant to report Q1 revenue of $9.45B, but that number has since slipped to $9.09B. In June, Nike also forecast FY18 revenue growth in the mid to high single digits; analysts at the time expected Nike to report FY18 revenue of $36.42B, but the consensus has since fallen to $36.01B. Nike said it expected foreign exchange to be a $700M headwind for FY18. Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy said her intra-quarter reads point to ongoing deceleration in Nike momentum and sees Q1 revenue as inline "at best" and gross margin worse than expected. BofA/Merrill analyst Robert Ohmes believes Nike will report above consensus earnings given conservative guidance, but expects a muted outlook due to weakening data points. 2. CONSUMER DIRECT OFFENSE: In June, Nike announced the "Consumer Direct Offense," a new alignment that "allows Nike to better serve the consumer personally." As part of the new alignment, the company will "deeply" serve customers in 12 key cities, namely New York, London, Shanghai, Beijing, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Paris, Berlin, Mexico City, Barcelona, Seoul, and Milan. Nike said that the changes will result in an overall reduction of roughly 2% of its global workforce. Susquehanna analyst Sam Poser said he believes Nike will provide a new five-year growth plan and push out its $50B revenue target beyond 2020. 3. AMAZON DEAL: Nike has started selling shoes directly on Amazon (AMZN) through a new brand registry that prevents counterfeits. In June, Nike said the partnership is in the "early stages." Raymond James analyst Cedric Lecasble said the growing influence of millennials is transforming the sporting goods industry and Nike's approach to social media and ecommerce has radically evolved recently as reflected with the recent Instagram and Amazon deals. 4. INCREASED COMPETITION AND PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY: Nike is under pressure from competitors including Under Armour (UA, UAA) and adidas (ADDYY). Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy noted that bulls on Nike are still denying the durability of adidas' resurgence. Wells Fargo analyst Tom Nikic said that while the athletic apparel/footwear space was one of the strongest sub-sectors in his group coming out of the recession, he now sees several areas for concern that are not only likely weighing on the industry, but also have the potential to accelerate. With consumers having filled their closets with athletic wear over the past seven years, the category "appears poised to take a breather for now," Nikic argued. Furthermore, the analyst pointed out that athletic trends have worsened, with sneaker retailers now underperforming non-athletic shoe stores for the first since the fourth quarter of 2011. Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said Nike is ceding market share to adidas in both Europe and the U.S. at an accelerating pace, especially in running. The analyst's webscrape analysis showed Nike has 35 shoes in the top 60 sellers, versus 52 last year, while adidas has risen to 24 styles, versus just two last year. Further, Konik pointed out that Nike promotions are up year over year and are higher than adidas, adding that the former's share in basketball seems to have peaked. BofA/Merrill's Robert Ohmes noted that the promotional environment remains elevated, Nike continues to lose shares to adidas, the e-commerce channel has become a "dumping ground" for clearance and discounting, and VaporMax sales are not yet meaningful.

NKE

Nike

$53.24

0.01 (0.02%)

AMZN

Amazon.com

$939.79

-15.31 (-1.60%)

UA

Under Armour

$15.43

0.04 (0.26%)

UAA

Under Armour

$16.68

-0.06 (-0.36%)

ADDYY

adidas

$113.80

-1.22 (-1.06%)

  • 26

    Sep

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    Oct

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    Oct

NKE Nike
$53.24

0.01 (0.02%)

09/26/17
BERN
09/26/17
NO CHANGE
BERN
Survey respondents more likely to buy Nike for fashion/function, says Bernstein
Bernstein analyst Jamie Merriman says he and his firm surveyed 1000 people in the U.S. in July, asking them about 22 athletic apparel and footwear brands. At the athletic apparel and footwear category level, 58% of survey respondents expect to spend about the same amount on the category as they have spent over the last 12 months, while 28% expect to spend more and 14% expect to spend less, he notes. Among those who had shopped the brands in the LTM, the analyst says theintention to purchase more in the NTM was similar across Nike (NKE), adidas (ADDYY) and Under Armour (UAA), while Lululemon (LULU) customers reported the highest intention to purchase more going forward. Additionally, Merriman said respondents were most likely to purchase Nike, relative to other brands, for a combination of fashion and function.
09/22/17
PIPR
09/22/17
NO CHANGE
Target $53
PIPR
Neutral
Nike bulls in denial about resurgence of adidas, Piper Jaffray says
Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy says her intra-quarter reads point to ongoing deceleration in Nike (NKE) momentum, increasing concern around the Jordan brand, which represents 10% of sales, and intensifying promotional pressure on the category domestically. Bulls on Nike are still denying the durability of adidas' (ADDYY) resurgence, Murphy tells investors in a pre-earnings research note. The analyst believes adidas' market share gains have "longer growth sustainability." For Nike's Q1 results on September 26, Murphy sees revenue as inline "at best" and gross margin worse than expected. The analyst, however, sees cost controls driving an earnings beat. Murphy also sees risk to Nike's outlook for Q2. She keeps a Neutral rating on the shares with a $53 price target.
09/19/17
09/19/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Under Armour (UA, UAA) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo with Wells Fargo with analyst Tom Nikic saying with consumers having filled their closets with athletic wear over the past seven years, the category "appears poised to take a breather for now." The analyst cut his price target for the shares to $13 from $17. 2. Kellogg (K) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray with analyst Michael Lavery saying cereal could be at risk from shrinking center store space. 3. Nike (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna saying that his checks indicate that the North American and European businesses are decelerating as some key categories, especially basketball, have underperformed, resulting in excess inventory that will pressure sales and margins. 4. Synchronoss (SNCR) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Raymond James with analyst Tavis McCourt citing the news that Siris Capital is no longer interested in an all-cash transaction for all the outstanding shares of the company and has withdrawn its $18 per share bid from June 22. Further, the analyst believes it increasingly unlikely that the current strategic review will result in an acquisition at a premium and expects share to come under pressure and stay in the range prior to the Siris indication of interest. 5. Sony (SNE) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
09/19/17
BOFA
09/19/17
NO CHANGE
Target $42
BOFA
Underperform
Nike risk/reward remains unfavorable, says BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill analyst Robert Ohmes believes Nike to report Q1 earnings next Tuesday above consensus of 48c given conservative guidance but expects a muted outlook due to weakening data points. Ohmes said retail partner same-store sales have deteriorated from last quarter, SportScan data continues to deteriorate, the promotional environment remains elevated, the company continues to lose share to adidas, the e-commerce channel has become a "dumping ground" for clearance and discounting, and VaporMax sales are not yet meaningful. The analyst maintains his Underperform rating and $42 price target on Nike and said risk/reward remains unfavorable.
AMZN Amazon.com
$939.79

-15.31 (-1.60%)

09/20/17
SBSH
09/20/17
NO CHANGE
Target $51
SBSH
Buy
Citi likes Kohl's swimming with the 'shark,' boosts target to $51
Citi analyst Paul Lejuez raised his price target for Kohl's (KSS) to $51 after the company announced its second partnership with Amazon (AMZN) this month. The collaboration, at a time when department stores are struggling, shows that Kohl's management is thinking out of the box, Lejuez tells investors in a research note. He believes the partnership can work to improve traffic. It is "better to be the 'pilot fish' that swims with the 'shark' than to be hunted by the shark," the analyst contends. He keeps a Buy rating on Kohl's.
09/20/17
NRCS
09/20/17
NO CHANGE
NRCS
Henry Schein and Patterson concerns overdone, says Northcoast
Northcoast analyst Ed Snyder said Henry Schein (HSIC) and Patterson Companies (PDCO) have traded significantly lower in the past week due to concerns Amazon.com will increase exposure to the dental market. Snyder's research indicates Amazon is sourcing product from unsustainable sources including grey market sellers and privately-held Arnold Dental Supply, and not from large dental product manufacturers directly. He expects Arnold Dental to face increasing pressure from manufacturers who are annoyed product s are being sold via Amazon and notes many are not currently filling orders to replenish inventory. Further, Snyder said dentists value equipment service and support offered by traditional distributors far more than price discounts.
09/26/17
BARD
09/26/17
NO CHANGE
Target $24
BARD
Outperform
GameStop remains interesting, but speculative, value play, says Baird
Baird analyst Colin Sebastian hosted GameStop (GME) management and came away believing it remains an interesting, albeit speculative, value opportunity for investors. He said demand remains high for hardware but supplies remain tight. He also noted new software sales remain challenging given longer game lifecycles and the increasing digital download mix. Sebastian said the company is devoting more store space to collectibles, which is helping to drive store traffic. He also noted their PowerUp members have an overlap with Amazon (AMZN) Prime subscribers, which could make it a potential target of partnership interest. Sebastian reiterated his Outperform rating and $24 price target on GameStop shares.
09/26/17
WEDB
09/26/17
NO CHANGE
Target $60
WEDB
Outperform
Wedbush remains bullish on GrubHub despite Amazon competition
Wedbush analyst Aaron Turner maintains his long-term bullish view on shares of GrubHub (GRUB) and believes it is best positioned to benefit from the secular shift to digital in the restaurant take-out and delivery market. The analyst thinks Amazon (AMZN) is a "formidable opponent" for GrubHub and its recent partnership with Olo represents its continued commitment to the space. However, Turner believes the lack of wide-spread adoption of the Amazon restaurants platform by non-chains and the lack of prominence of the restaurants offering within its app continue to hamper diner adoption. Ultimately, he sees the market opportunity as large enough to support multiple businesses with GrubHub leading the way. The analyst reiterated an Outperform rating on GrubHub's shares, but lowered his price target on the stock to $60 from $63.
UA Under Armour
$15.43

0.04 (0.26%)

09/25/17
KEYB
09/25/17
UPGRADE
KEYB
Overweight
Under Armour upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma upgraded Under Armour (UAA) to Overweight saying the addition of a new chief operating officer along with a renewed focus on improving financial performance point to a near-term inflection for the shares. The company currently trades near a trough enterprise value to sales ratio and at a discount to its major peers, Yruma tells investors in a research note. He believes the Under Armour brand "remains strong." The analyst has a $20 price target for the shares. Under Armour closed Friday down 8c to $16.41. Yruma coupled the upgrade with a downgrade of VF Corp. (VFC) to Sector Weight.
09/25/17
KEYB
09/25/17
DOWNGRADE
KEYB
Sector Weight
VF Corp. downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma downgraded VF Corp. to Sector Weight saying the company's "consistent" results are adequately reflected in the current valuation. VF remains susceptible to any slowdown at Vans, Yruma tells investors in a research note. He views the current valuation as fair. The analyst coupled the downgrade with an upgrade of Under Armour (UAA) to Overweight.
09/25/17
09/25/17
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. General Motors (GM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with analyst Rod Lache saying GM's autonomous vehicles will be ready for commercial deployment, without human drivers, much sooner than widely expected and possibly years ahead of competitors. 2. Ross Stores (ROST) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst Matthew Boss saying he left meetings with management more positive on the off-price sector and believes the company is well positioned for double-digit growth. 3. Under Armour (UA, UAA) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc with analyst Edward Yruma saying the addition of a new chief operating officer along with a renewed focus on improving financial performance point to a near-term inflection for the shares. 4. Transocean (RIG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS with analyst Angie Sedita citing "early signs of a slow recovery." 5. Box (BOX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James with analyst Brian Peterson saying risk/reward is compelling at current levels. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
09/25/17
09/25/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Under Armour (UAA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim. 2. VF Corp. (VFC) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc with analyst Edward Yruma saying the company's "consistent" results are adequately reflected in the current valuation. 3. Quest Diagnostics (DGX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James with analyst Nicholas Jansen citing the preliminary 2018 Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule, or CLFS, rates released Friday evening, which creates an overhang. 4. AbbVie (ABBV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS with analyst Marc Goodman saying that shares are up 40% year-to-date. 5. Albemarle (ALB) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird with analyst Ben Kallo saying he thinks near-term execution is largely priced into the stock and he believes the shares are fully valued at current levels. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
UAA Under Armour
$16.68

-0.06 (-0.36%)

09/25/17
GUGG
09/25/17
DOWNGRADE
GUGG
Neutral
Under Armour downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
ADDYY adidas
$113.80

-1.22 (-1.06%)

09/19/17
JEFF
09/19/17
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Jefferies cuts Nike target, says share loss to adidas accelerating
Survey work shows Nike (NKE) is ceding market share to adidas (ADDYY) in both Europe and the U.S. at an accelerating pace, especially in running, Jefferies analyst Randal Konik tells investors in a research note. The analyst's webscrape analysis shows Nike has 35 shoes in the top 60 sellers versus 52 last year, while adidas has risen to 24 styles, versus just 2 last year. Konik expects downward estimate revisions and multiple compression for Nike. He lowered his estimates for the company and cut his price target for the shares to $49 from $60. The shoemaker closed yesterday down 37c to $53.50. The analyst reiterates a Hold rating on the name. Konik also views Nike's eroding market share as negative for both Foot Locker (FL) and Finish Line (FINL).
09/18/17
ADAM
09/18/17
NO CHANGE
Target $51
ADAM
Hold
Nike showing internal 'panic' and investors may lose patience, says Canaccord
Canaccord analyst Camilo Lyon said his industry contacts indicate that a resurging Adidas (ADDYY) has taken meaningful share from Nike, "to the point of causing panic internally. He believes Nike investors, who have exhibited an "extraordinary amount of patience," could perhaps see their patience wane if the company does not show progress with its "stale innovation pipeline." Nike's Q4 had red flags that clearly pointed to a significant sell-in of product, leaving "little room" for a "quality" Q1 sales beat, said Lyon, who predicts the company will post an "expense-driven beat on easy comparisons" with its report on September 26 but believes second half expectations remain far too optimistic. He keeps a Hold rating and $51 price target on Nike shares.

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United Continental

$59.90

0.12 (0.20%)

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Caesars

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$71.18

0.29 (0.41%)

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$40.35

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Centene

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  • 21

    Oct

  • 07

    Nov

19:15
10/20/17
10/20
19:15
10/20/17
19:15
General news
Breaking General news story  »

Federal Reserve Chair…

ATRS

Antares Pharma

$2.18

0.06 (2.83%)

18:59
10/20/17
10/20
18:59
10/20/17
18:59
Hot Stocks
FDA cannot approve Antares Pharma's Xyosted NDA »

Antares Pharma announced…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
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  • 20

    Oct

18:55
10/20/17
10/20
18:55
10/20/17
18:55
Conference/Events
Federal Reserve Chairperson delivers a lecture at NEC Dinner »

Federal Reserve…

SHIP

Seanergy Marine

$1.24

0.0199 (1.63%)

17:50
10/20/17
10/20
17:50
10/20/17
17:50
Syndicate
Breaking Syndicate news story on Seanergy Marine »

Seanergy Marine files to…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
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Citigroup
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HLI

Houlihan Lokey

$41.56

0.18 (0.43%)

17:49
10/20/17
10/20
17:49
10/20/17
17:49
Syndicate
Breaking Syndicate news story on Houlihan Lokey »

Houlihan Lokey files to…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
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  • 24

    Oct

GEO

Geo Group

$26.20

0.2 (0.77%)

17:48
10/20/17
10/20
17:48
10/20/17
17:48
Syndicate
Breaking Syndicate news story on Geo Group »

Geo Group files automatic…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
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Credit Suisse
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  • 14

    Dec

DBVT

DBV Technologies

$48.07

0.92 (1.95%)

, AIMT

Aimmune

$25.66

-0.06 (-0.23%)

17:37
10/20/17
10/20
17:37
10/20/17
17:37
Hot Stocks
DBV sinks following peanut allergy trial miss, Aimmune soars »

Shares of DBV…

DBVT

DBV Technologies

$48.07

0.92 (1.95%)

AIMT

Aimmune

$25.66

-0.06 (-0.23%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
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Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
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  • 06

    Nov

KALV

KalVista

$11.26

1.99 (21.47%)

, DBVT

DBV Technologies

$48.07

0.92 (1.95%)

17:24
10/20/17
10/20
17:24
10/20/17
17:24
Hot Stocks
On The Fly: After Hours Movers »

HIGHER: KalVista (KALV),…

KALV

KalVista

$11.26

1.99 (21.47%)

DBVT

DBV Technologies

$48.07

0.92 (1.95%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
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