For the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook
For the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook, the monthly hours-worked figures posted a 0.6% Q3 pace after a robust 3.0% Q2 clip, and prior rates of 1.4% in Q1, 1.7% in Q4 and 1.5% in Q3. The hours-worked path is underperforming our Q3 GDP growth forecast of 3.0%, though the Q3 figure is biased-down from the hurricane hit, which was much greater in the September BLS survey week than for September overall. Analysts expect a productivity growth rate of 3.0% in Q3 after an expected Q2 trimming to 1.4% from 1.5%. Unit labor costs are poised for a flat Q3 figure after an unrevised 0.2% Q2 increase. Productivity is following an anemic path despite a Q3 pop thanks to lean GDP growth versus the pace of job creation. For Q4/Q4 growth in 2017, analysts expect a 1.3% rise for productivity with a 2.6% pace for GDP and a 2.0% rate for hours worked. Analysts expect payroll growth to average 182k in 2017, as job growth continues to gradually slow from averages of 187k in 2016, 226k in 2015 and 242k in 2014. Analysts saw a hurricane-distorted 91k average nonfarm payroll gain in Q3, following prior averages of 187k in Q2 and 166k in Q1.