Action Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: the nonfarm payroll report lived up to its "distorted" billing. But, while many of the stats showed outsized gains (in terms of earnings), or losses (in terms of jobs), they could be generally rationalized. The net result left intact the view that the FOMC will remain on its gradual course of normalization in terms of rates. The Survey Median estimates show no change in interest rates next month, as has always been the call, and a 25 bp hike in December. Indeed, nearly all in the survey projected action in December, and those few who project a steady stance through the rest of the year, predict a tightening in January. The employment report gave us a taste of the hurricane distortions, and clearly many of the upcoming reports will be very noisy too, but interesting nonetheless. Headline September CPI is expected to climb 0.6%, thanks mainly to the surge in petroleum prices, while the core rate increases 0.2%. Retail sales will be impacted by various hurricane dislocations as well. Sales are expected to rise 1.5%, with estimates ranging from 2.5% to 0.7%, while the ex-auto component increases 0.8%.