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ADM

Archer Daniels

$41.74

0.78 (1.90%)

, BG

Bunge

$79.62

2.06 (2.66%)

10:27
01/22/18
01/22
10:27
01/22/18
10:27

Analysts speculate on Bunge takeover price, potential bidding war

Shares of Bunge (BG) are on the rise following media reports saying Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) had approached the company with a takeover offer. Commenting on the news, Citi analyst David Driscoll told investors that $85-$100 per share is an "appropriate" takeover price for Archer Daniels Midland to pay for Bunge. Noting that Glencore (GLNCY) was also said to have shown interest, his peer at Baird argued that it could be positive catalyst for Archer Daniels even if they are not the winning bidder as the takeover would provide a value benchmark. SPECULATION SHOULD DRIVE SHARES HIGHER: In a research note this morning, Baird analyst Ben Kallo noted that Archer Daniels is the second possible suitor interested in Bunge, with Glencore having been rumored previously. With multiple bidders now reportedly interested, the analyst argued that reignited takeover chatter could contribute to near-term share appreciation. Additionally, Kallo pointed out that he believes Archer Daniels could benefit from industry consolidation. A Bunge transaction would provide a valuation benchmark, which could be a positive catalyst for the former even if it is not the winning bidder, he contended. The analyst reiterated a Neutral rating and a $75 price target on Bunge's shares. TAKEOVER PRICE: Commenting on the news report, Citi analyst David Driscoll told investors in a research note of his own that he believes $85-$100 per share is an "appropriate" takeover price for Archer Daniels to pay for Bunge. "Back of the envelope" deal math at the midpoint of the takeout range suggests accretion to Archer Daniels of 75c per share, Driscoll contended. Nonetheless, the analyst pointed out that there could be some antitrust issues in Archer Daniels' and Bunge's oilseed processing businesses in the U.S. and Europe. If Archer Daniels is unable to hold onto Bunge's North American and European crushing assets in a deal, the transaction would be less attractive, Driscoll added. Meanwhile, his peer at Stifel said he sees the potential deal as a relatively logical fit given that Bunge's business would "go a long way" to diversifying Archer Daniels' geographic exposure. Analyst Vincent Anderson believes the latter could pay upwards of $96 per share for Bunge while still making an accretive deal. Nonetheless, he pointed out that Glencore would likely remain a competitor for the purchase of the assets. The analyst reiterated a Hold rating on Archer Daniels' shares, while lowering his price target on the stock to $43 from $44. Stephens analyst Farha Aslam also commented on the media report, noting that according to prior news of Glencore's interest, the company has a standstill agreement in place that expires in February. The analyst told investors that she believes Bunge could be valued at $90-$95 in a takeover scenario. Bunge's product portfolio is far more commodity oriented compared to the value-added strategy that Archel Daniels has been articulating, so news of a potential combination is surprising, she contended. However, the analyst noted that the combination would likely yield significant synergies, create an asset base in key agricultural areas and potentially lead to more disciplined pricing. Aslam reiterated an Equal Weight rating and $72 price target on Bunge's shares. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of Bunge have gained about 2.5% to $79.43, while Archer Daniels' stock has advanced 2% to $41.80.

ADM

Archer Daniels

$41.74

0.78 (1.90%)

BG

Bunge

$79.62

2.06 (2.66%)

GLNCY

Glencore

$11.29

-0.02 (-0.18%)

  • 06

    Feb

  • 14

    Feb

ADM Archer Daniels
$41.74

0.78 (1.90%)

01/22/18
SBSH
01/22/18
NO CHANGE
SBSH
Citi sees $85-$100 per share as 'appropriate' deal price for Bunge
Citi analyst David Driscoll believes $85-$100 per share is an "appropriate" takeover price for Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) to pay for Bunge (BG). The Wall Street Journal on Friday reported that ADM has made a takeover approach towards Bunge. "Back of the envelope" deal math at the midpoint of the takeout range suggests accretion to ADM of 75c per share, 28% against a 2018 earnings per share of forecast of $2.70, Driscoll tells investors in a research note. He believes, however, that there could be some antitrust issues in ADM and Bunge's oilseed processing businesses in the U.S. and Europe. Antitrust hurdles in both countries are "likely high" for a possible combination, the analyst contends. Further, he believes that if ADM is unable to hold onto Bunge's North American and European crushing assets in a deal, the transaction would be less attractive.
01/22/18
SPHN
01/22/18
NO CHANGE
Target $72
SPHN
Equal Weight
Bunge could be valued at $90-$95 in takeover, says Stephens
After The Wall Street Journal reported that Archer Daniels Midlands (ADM) made a takeover approach to Bunge (BG), Stephens analyst Farha Aslam noted the prior reports that Glencore (GLNCY) had sought to buy Bunge last May and has a stand still agreement in place that expires in February. She believes that Bunge could be valued at $90-$95 in a takeover scenario and notes that synergies from a combination with Archer Daniels would likely be significant. Aslam keeps an Equal Weight rating and $72 price target on Bunge shares.
01/22/18
BARD
01/22/18
NO CHANGE
Target $75
BARD
Neutral
Bunge takeover speculation could drive shares higher short-term, says Baird
Baird analyst Ben Kallo noted the WSJ article that said Archer Daniels (ADM) had approached Bunge (BG) with a takeover offer. Kallo noted this is the second possible suitor interested in the company with Glencore (GLNCY) having been rumored previously. He said with multiple bidders now reportedly interested, the chatter could lead to a short-term rise in Bunge shares. He also thinks this could be a positive catalyst for Archer Daniels even if they are not the winning bidder as the takeover would provide a value benchmark. Kallo has a Neutral rating on Bunge with a $75 price target on the shares.
01/22/18
STFL
01/22/18
NO CHANGE
Target $43
STFL
Hold
Archer Daniels could pay upwards of $96 per share for Bunge, says Stifel
After The Wall Street Journal reported that Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) had made a takeover approach to Bunge (BG), Stifel analyst Vincent Anderson said that strategically he sees such a potential deal as a relatively logical fit given that Bunge's business would "go a long way" to diversifying Archer Daniels' geographic exposure. He believes that Archer Daniels can pay upwards of $96 per share for Bunge while still making an accretive deal, Anderson tells investors. While also adjusting his estimates ahead of its Q4 report, Anderson trimmed his price target on the stock to $43 from $44 and keeps a Hold rating on Archer Daniels.
BG Bunge
$79.62

2.06 (2.66%)

GLNCY Glencore
$11.29

-0.02 (-0.18%)

12/15/17
JPMS
12/15/17
UPGRADE
JPMS
Overweight
Glencore upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan (yesterday)
JPMorgan analyst Fraser Jamieson yesterday upgraded Glencore to Overweight and added the shares to his firm's Analyst Focus List.
05/24/17
FBCO
05/24/17
NO CHANGE
FBCO
Bunge CEO, board likely to engage Glencore, says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Robert Moskow believes Bunge (BG) CEO Soren Schroder and the company's board will engage with Glencore (GLNCY) regarding a possible tie-up. Combining with Glencore "sounds like a logical way" to address the glut of grain supplies and the persistent problem of slow farmer-selling, Moskow told investors earlier in a research note. The analyst points out that Schroder himself said in the past that the industry needs to consolidate in order to improve returns. Moskow thinks $90-$95 per share is the "right range" for a buyout of Bunge. The stock, after rallying yesterday on news of Glencore's approach, is down 33c to $81.37 in morning trading. Moskow has an Outperform rating on the shares with an $80 price target.

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