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BIIB

Biogen

$296.08

-20.91 (-6.60%)

08:59
02/15/18
02/15
08:59
02/15/18
08:59

Morgan Stanley says Biogen Alzheimer trial change could be positive or negative

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison noted that Biogen management indicated during an industry conference presentation that the enrollment for the Phase 3 aducanumab trials in Alzheimer's was being increased by 510 patients. Investors clearly took this as bad news, but "we just don't have enough information to know if the reason driving the change is bad or good," Harrison tells investors. The higher variability could be driven by a larger than expected treatment effect and "it is completely possible...aducanumab is actually doing better than expected," he added. Stating that the news doesn't fundamentally change his positive view on Biogen, Harrison maintains an Overweight rating on the shares.

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BIIB Biogen
$296.08

-20.91 (-6.60%)

02/14/18
JEFF
02/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $375
JEFF
Hold
Biogen swings back to Alzheimer's uncertainty, says Jefferies
At an industry conference today, Biogen provided some updates to its Phase III Alzheimer's study, including plans to add an additional 510 patients across the two aducanumab studies, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee tells investors in a research note. While these changes do not necessarily dramatically change the probability of success, it does change Wall Street's "sense of confidence," Yee contends. He believes the market will "swing back to uncertainty" on the Alzheimer's pendulum based on trial changes. Yee thinks Biogen needs to acquire de-risked "neuro/orphan companies" to "change the narrative" from being a binary Alzheimer's company to one with products even if Alzheimer's doesn't work. Yee keeps a Hold rating on Biogen shares with a $375 price target. The stock in afternoon trading is down 7% to $295.42.
02/15/18
PIPR
02/15/18
NO CHANGE
Target $407
PIPR
Overweight
Biogen selloff yesterday a buying opportunity, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond recommends using the selloff yesterday in shares of Biogen (BIIB) as a buying opportunity. The stock pulled back after management disclosed at a conference plans to up-size the Phase 3 aducanumab program by 510 patients total. While "this is a bit unnerving," particularly on the heels of another Phase 3 Alzheimer's failure for Merck's (MRK) verubecestat, the study remains blinded and variability on the primary endpoint can stem from a host of reasons, not all of them bad, Raymond tells investors in a research note titled "Aducanumab P3 Upsizing Doesn't Tell Us Much." The analyst does not think yesterday's news says much about the chances for an interim analysis or about aducanumab's efficacy profile. He keeps an Overweight rating on Biogen with a $407 price target.
02/15/18
ADAM
02/15/18
NO CHANGE
Target $350
ADAM
Hold
Biogen trial change does not alter efficacy assumptions, says Canaccord
Canaccord analyst Sumant Kulkarni noted Biogen announced an upsizing to its Alzheimer drug trial due to greater variability on the primary endpoint. The analyst said this was based on a pre-specified plan and does not change the efficacy assumptions of the drug. As a result he expects the shares to recover some of their losses. Kulkarni maintained his Hold rating and $350 price target on Biogen shares.
02/15/18
WBLR
02/15/18
NO CHANGE
WBLR
Outperform
Biogen enrollment increase is not unusual, says William Blair
William Blair analyst Matt Phipps believes increasing enrollment of Biogen's Phase III trials of aducanumab in prodromal Alzheimer's disease to ensure appropriate powering and confidence interval error margin, which caused yesterday's share selloff, is "prudent and not unusual." Based on his analysis, the trial is sufficiently powered to detect a benefit significantly below what was observed in the Phase Ib trial. The increase in variability in and of itself does not preclude trial success, Phipps tells investors in a research note. He sees "very limited" downside at current price levels if aducanumab were to fail, and adds that success of Biogen's growing earlier stage pipeline has the potential to provide additional upside. The analyst sees upside potential of over 50%, to $500 per share, if Phase III trials of aducanumab are successful, and a base support level slightly below $300 per share if the trials fail. Phipps keeps an Outperform rating on Biogen.

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GOOG

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GOOG

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$1,199.71

16.05 (1.36%)

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SMAR

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-0.16 (-0.37%)

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LGIH

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INVH

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FDX

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LYFT

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GLD

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